A Quarter For Your Thoughts
This week the season reaches the quarter poll, as most teams reached the 40 game plateau. Some interesting trends have emerged in the first quarter, with some surprises and in some cases, some predicted scripts. No matter what the early trends reveal, there is still a ton of baseball to be played, but being the crazed baseball fans that we are, we like to make periodic assessments and pretend to know how it’s all going to play out. With that in mind, let me “play the game” and give you my spin, particularly on the American League and AL East in general as I dissect the numbers.
No surprise, the AL East is the top division in baseball, based on average winning percentage. Going into this weekend, the AL East boasted a .538 winning percentage, the best in the bigs. The NL Central is a close second with a .534 average winning percentage with the AL Central sliding into third with a .526 winning percentage. The NL West is next (.510) followed by the NL East (.449).
Despite staking claim to the team with the best record in the American League in the Texas Rangers (27-15), the AL West is bringing up the rear with a .445 average winning percentage, which may raise an eyebrow with some as to whether the Rangers are for real or are they just beating up on their weaker division foes. Time will tell. To date, Texas is 16-6 within their division while the only other team with a winning record inside the AL West is Oakland at 15-7 within their own division. Those 2 teams have feasted on the other teams within their division. With their mark of 10 games above .500 within their division, Texas can claim the best divisional mark against their own division.
Speaking of feasting on your own division, the Atlanta Braves jump out at me with their 11-4 division record compared to 2nd place Washington’s 8-8 divisional record. Atlanta sports a one game lead on Washington, which magnifies the comparative division records. At the end of the day, these kinds of head-to-head divisional records may be what separate the playoff contenders from the also-rans.
The AL East is also the only division with 4 of its 5 teams with better than .500 records. NY, Boston, Baltimore and Tampa Bay all have winning records going into this weekend.
One could surmise that if these teams have played approximately half their games within their own division thus far and STILL have the best average winning percentage with 4 teams over .500, that it further validates the assertion that the AL East is the best division in baseball; At least at the quarter pole. Conversely, the AL West offers only one team (Texas) over .500 while Atlanta and Washington are the only 2 teams in the NL East with winning records. The remaining 3 divisions all have 3 teams that are above the .500 marks so far this season.
There are some surprises so far as well. The upstart Cleveland Indians have the best record in the Majors in 1-run games and are 4-0 in extra inning games helping to propel them to a surprising 23-17 record and into a tie with Detroit for the top spot in the AL Central. As we saw last year with Baltimore when they posted the 3rd best winning percentage in MLB history in 1-run games with an astounding 29-9 record, 1-run games can make or break a team’s playoff chances. Will Cleveland be this year’s Baltimore Orioles? We’ll see come the dog days of August!
Clevelanders – Are You READY for me to completely shit the bed in the Playoffs?
On the flip side, the experts pre-season choice for best-in-baseball, the Toronto Blue Jays are 5-8 in 1-run games and 8-16 within their division and consequently are bringing up the rear in the Al East. (EDITORS NOTE: Not our choice!)
As I stated last week, one of the biggest surprises that isn’t a surprise to the AFR staff, considering the history of these teams, is that the 2 teams picked to fight for last place in the AL East, are firmly entrenched at the top of the division. Both Boston and New York have been riddled by injuries to key players, but each has had players step up to fill the gaps, helping to propel these bitter rivals to the top of the AL East. (EDITORS NOTE: Not for nothing, but the Yankees have lost a Hall Of Fame Shortstop, a Three time MVP 3rd Baseman, his replacement, his replacement, their perennial All Star first baseman, their power hitting centerfielder and their starting catcher who should have been a backup anyway. The Sox have lost…Andrew Bailey?? No sympathy!) As each gets players back healthy and players settle into their expected roles in the order and on the field, it will be interesting to see if these 2 teams begin to separate from the pack. Given the strength of the division, that could be a tough task. As the season goes on, some of the key stats to keep and eye on are the, divisional records, 1-run records as well as head-to-head records of the top teams within each division. These stats could prove to be the difference between making it into the second season come October and packing the bags for a long off-season. So there you have it, my quarter’s worth of thoughts on the MLB season thus far! Don’t spend it all in one place!
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