Blue Jay Way – Or – Why Everyone Needs To Relax
By: Carlo Rivieccio
The Toronto Blue Jays shocked the baseball world this winter by completely fleecing trading for half the Miami Marlins roster. They acquired Jose Reyes, John Buck, Left Hander Mark Buehrle, Right Hander Josh Johnson and Emilio Bonifacio while giving up several top prospects.
They then doubled down by swapping John Buck (An ok catcher) and Travis D’Arnoud (a potentially good catcher) and a bag of baseballs for R.A. Dickey, Josh Thole and catching propect Mike Nickeas.
There is something to be said for the Jays spending, throwing out big time money to compete in the toughest division in baseball is necessary, though opportunistic might be the better word. The Yankees are old, hurt and hamstrung by the owner imposed salary restrictions. The Red Sox have seemed to waive the white flag on contending for this season. The Orioles may not have another incredible run in them and The Rays may or may not be legit, as seems to be the case every year. So if ever there was a time to splurge, this would be it. If they have a World Series run in them, then it may well be worth the cost.
But here’s the thing everyone forgets to mention when talking about how the AL Beast is Toronto’s division to lose:
Half of their 2013 Team is half of the 2012 Miami Marlins and THE 2012 MARLINS WERE AWFUL!
THEY WERE AWFUL!
They won 69 games. In the NL East. The Mets won over 70! Your manager would have to have a goddamn anuerysm to only win 69 games in the NL East.
To take a quick peek at the Headliners of this deal – Buehrle, Johnson, Reyes and Dickey, we’ll see Toronto might just be a Paper Tiger.
In the interest of fairness, I must admit now that personally and as a fan of baseball, I completely can’t stand Jose Reyes. Although really, it’s Mets fans bending over backwards to blow a guy who hasn’t won anything that I hate, but still, the fact remains that I can’t stand the guy. I can’t stand the stupid handshakes, I can’t stand that the Mets made him stop doing the stupid handshakes, I can’t stand his completely gutless handling of his batting title, I can’t stand his constant injury and most importantly I can’t stand the fact that he takes plays off and hustles only when it’s convenient to him. I’m biased as all hell, but I’ll try to be fair.
Jose Reyes has to live up to the contract
He’s a very good shortstop and there are very few people for whom Jose Reyes would not be an upgrade. But, he’s injury prone and as much as the turf at the Rogers Centre might help his batting average it might not be as kind to his legs. You always have to make sure he wants to play. If the team struggles, which Reyes shows up. And most importantly, your new team shouldn’t so greatly regret your contract that they dump you off after one season.
Mark Buehrle must prove he can win in the East
Mark Buehrle has been an above average pitcher for his entire career, with only one losing season (12-13, 4.99, 2005 CHI) in his 13 seasons. He’s never started less than 30 games or thrown less than 200 innings since his second season and twice led the league in Innings Pitched. A career 3.82 ERA and 1.24 WHIP to go along with an even 2 BB/9, 1 HR/9 and 5.1 K/9. He’ll also be 34 at the beginning of the season and has spent the majority of his career in the AL Central, which as you may know is where the Royals are, the Indians are and, lest we forget due to recent success, The Tigers who until 2008 used to lose a lot of games and the nearly contracted Minnesota Twins.
You’re getting an innings eater and good one. But not great. After all, he was the winningest Marlin last year (13-13). If everything works out then he’s your number three starter. Which of course means…
Josh Johnson 2013 has to be Josh Johnson 2009/2010 and not 2011/2012.
He is the lynchpin of the Blue Jays season. If they get the 2009 Johnson, who went 15-5 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.158 WHIP or the 2010 Johnson who had a League Leading 2.30 ERA and 1.105 WHIP to go along with an 11-6 record then they are in very good shape. The flip side of course, is that he’s only thrown over 200 innings once due to various maladies. His 2010 season was ended early due to shoulder and back issues. That led to him only starting 9 games in 2011 and being shut down with Shoulder inflammation. So now there’s a potential ace, who has missed a season with shoulder injuries which can be worse than elbow injuries for pitchers, who does not pitch a ton of innings, moving from the NL east to the AL East. Oy. Things look up when you consider that the Jays traded for the current Cy Young winner, R.A. Dickey except that…
R.A. Dickey has prove that his previous season wasn’t a complete outlier.
He’s a great story and I do hope he can maintain his success, but as a pitcher who was used as a reliever for most of his career until he became a Met, there has to be some trepidation. Yes, he won as many games in 2011 (20) as he had in the previous three seasons and since becoming a full time starter with the Mets, he has posted his best ERA and WHIP totals, as well as his best BB/9 and some of his best K/9 but again, he’s moving to the American League. He’ll get lineups of 9 real hitters as opposed to 7-8. Also, there is absolutely no reason to believe he has another 20 win season in him, Maybe he can win 15 and he can certainly get 13. There is no reason to expect a sub 2.5 ERA. Not in the AL, not in the East.
The list of pitchers last year in the AL with sub 3 ERA – David Price, Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver.
The list of pitchers last year in the AL with sub 1.2 WHIP – Jered Weaver, Justin Verlander, Jake Peavy, David Price, Chris Sale, CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez, Huroki Kuroda, James Shields and Jason Vargas.
Only 3 pitchers had both and those are three of the best pitchers in the league. Is R.A. Dickey likely to joing that list? Probably not. If he can’t then the Jays traded one of the best catching prospects in the minors for someone who has peaked. Just like the rest of the players they traded for.
This is not to say that the Blue Jays will falter or be terrible. They may well run away with the division. Johnson could be healthy and dominant, Buerhle could be Buerhle, Dickey can remain a monster and Jose Reyes could steal 100 bases. The odds of that happening all at once, and lasting for the next few seaons are slim. So before we put Toronto in the World Series, let’s see just who they really traded for.
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