5 Questions For the NFC Championship

1)Will the 49ers stop the vertical passing game?

The 49ers boast a stout defense, as we all know.  But the Atlanta Falcons boast a very stout passing attack.  Roddy White and Julio Jones are both number 1 wide receiver talents, and Tony Gonzalez is…Tony Gonzalez.  As we said last week, the Seahawks were remarkable against the pass all year and Matt Ryan and his crew did enough to win, as the big trio put up 186 yards and 2 TDs.  While the 49er secondary is certainly good, they’re primary strength lies in the front seven (and they don’t have Seattle’s secondary).  In the divisional round, the 49ers were able to keep Aaron Rodgers and company under wraps – just enough – to win at home.  This is primarily because Rodgers spent most of his day doing something resembling this.  I don’t think the 49er secondary matches up well enough with the Falcons’ receiver core, especially in Atlanta.  So, this brings us to the next question…

2) Can the Falcons protect Matt Ryan that well again?

The Seahawks had a very hard time getting to Matt Ryan, hitting him only once with no sacks on the day. This was a stellar performance by the Falcons’ offensive line.   Throughout the year, Seattle and San Fran had similar success getting to the QB (although Seattle did play without Chris Clemons).  This week, Justin Smith still isn’t himself, which has a huge impact on Aldon Smith who hasn’t had a single sack since Justin has been battling his triceps tear.  San Francisco has to generate a pass rush in order to contain this offense.  Look for 40+ pass attempts by Matt Ryan, with various screens, drags, and slants to set up the deep passing game.  I think the dynamic of pressuring Matt Ryan into checking down and preventing throws downfield is the most important key to this game.

3) Will a road game have any affect on Colin Kaepernick?

This seems to be the year of precocious young QB.  Russell Wilson and RGIII, both rookies, sported passer ratings of 100 or better, which is unheard of.  Colin Kaepernick, a second year player with essentially rookie experience, had a rating of 98.3.  All three have shown poise, skill sets, and confidence way beyond their years.  Kaepernick faces a huge challenge going into Atlanta, who is now 34-6 at home with Matty Ice at QB.  Here’s Kaepernick’s split at home and away this year (taken from Seth Joyner’s article):

He’s better at home overall, for sure.  His average passer rating is much higher at home as well (109.7 to 88.7).  But we’ve seen him but up a huge game on the road against New England, with 4 TDs and a big win over the Patriots.  He recovered quite well last week from his early pick six against the Packers, showing an ability to bounce back from mistakes and not allow them to affect him through the course of a game.  In the end, it’s hard to predict an intangible like this in a one game performance.  I do think, though, that Kaepernick will maintain his track record as a pro and play well.

4) Will the Falcons keep the running game going?

The Falcons got a vintage performance out of Michael Turner and a nice contribution from Jacquizz Rodgers against the Seahawks.  The 49ers have a terrifying run defense, ranked 4^th in yardage and 2^nd in efficiency.  While I firmly believe that the basis of Atlanta’s attack will be downfield passing, will their running game be able to keep the defense honest?  Drawing a safety into the box will create huge problems for San Fran, but it remains to be seen if Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman ever really need that to happen.  Again, the Atlanta offensive line played a huge role in last week’s win, and it will be interesting to see if they can open up a few holes early and change the 49ers thinking a bit as the game goes on.  However, if the Falcons can’t get anything going early, I can see them running the ball about 3 times in the second half.  Depending, of course, on the score, because…

5) Can the Falcons defense stop the 49ers?

Last week, we spoke about the Falcons’ struggles letting up yardage but succeeding at being a good bend but don’t break defense.  Interestingly, the 49ers have had a lot of problems on offense in the red zone, ranking 18^th in TD percentage on the year.  But they seemed to cure this problem against the Packers, scoring TDs on 5 of 6 red zone visits.  The Falcons bucked their own trend as well last week, allowing 3 consecutive red zone scores in the fourth quarter during the Seahawks furious rally.  It was truly a tale of two halves, as the Falcons’ defense looked impenetrable in the first and as porous as can be in the second.  Russell Wilson torched their secondary to the tune of 385 yards; very different from the expected Marshawn Lynch show many people expected.  In addition, as we also documented previously, the Falcons struggle against mobile QBs and Kaepernick is certainly one of the best in that category.  The 49ers can do just about anything they want offensively with a great running game, and QB who can make plays with his arm or his feet, and a solid receiving core.  The Falcons are going to let up yardage, but they have to play better in the red zone than they did last week.  The Falcons will need John Abraham back and healthy to succeed, and it remains to be seen if that is going to be possible.

Prediction:

San Francisco 34, Falcons 30

San Fran simply has more talent on both sides of the ball than the Falcons, and if they play their game they can beat anyone.

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