Divisional Round Preview – Sunday Edition

By: Steve Caronia

Houston at New England

As Bill Barnwell astutely pointed out in a Grantland article in December, you cannot glean too much from the so called “playoff previews” that occur when two teams likely to meet in the playoffs meet in the regular season.  The Texans hope he’s right, as the 42-14 trouncing in Foxboro would not bode well for them if Barnwell is wrong.  Remember, though, to ask the Jets how they feel about this topic.

Key #1 – Texans had better get the rock in the end zone

The Patriots offense was pretty decent this year, scoring the third most points in the history of the NFL and ranking #1 in overall offensive efficiency according the crew at Football Outsiders.  By “pretty decent,” of course, I mean “eviscerated just about everyone.”  They even added a much-improved running attack into the mix with the emergence of Stevan Ridley and the usual antics of Danny Woodhead.  In all probability, they are going to score. A bunch.  So what are the Texans to do? Well, scoring is a good place to start.  In the wild-card round, the Texans moved the ball well between the 20s, amassing 420 yards of offense, 24 first downs, and a pedestrian 19 points.  Now, Cincinnati had a very solid Red Zone defense all year, ranking 8^th overall in TD percentage allowed (48.8%).  New England isn’t terrible, letting up TDs on 52% of their drives, ranking 13^th (that basically means they’d let up about 2-3 more TDs throughout the course of the year than Cincy – not a huge difference).  Houston ranks 14^th in Red Zone TD percentage at 54%.  I have an idea why.  Of their 30 TD’s from within the red zone, the Texans got 25 of them from their tight ends or Arian Foster.  Now, I’m a big fan of Owen Daniels and Foster, and James Casey and Garrett Graham are nice weapons as well.  But what about the 6’3” man child known as Andre Johnson? The Texans run the ball 62% of the time in the red zone and hardly ever look Johnson’s way when they can smell the end zone.  They may want to buck that trend and get the ball into AJ’s hands.  There is no one in the New England secondary who can handle him (unless you think Bill Belichek counts).

Key #2 – Who controls the pace?

The Houston Texans don’t want Matt Schaub to get into a game of who the fuck are you with Tom Brady.  It won’t end well.  I think time of possession is going to be a huge factor here, and Arian Foster, Ben Tate, Earl Campbell, and any other Houston running back they can scrounge up have to be very productive to keep the chains moving and ball out of Brady’s hands.  The Patriots are solid against the run, ranking 6^th in DVOA (which sort of dispels the “they defend the pass so poorly that no one runs on them” argument), led by their talented defensive line.  The Texans zone blocking scheme must play exceptionally well and allow Foster to get into the second level.  He has been stellar in the playoffs for his career, with 425 rushing yards in his first 3 playoff games and 170 yards from scrimmage on 40 touches last week, so we know he’s capable.  The Patriots know this, and this is where Matt Schaub and play calling come in.  Their west-coast offense might want to use the pass to set up the run, a reversal of typical strategery but not uncommonly employed.  Look for Houston to avoid run-run-pass drives and move to the short passing game on early downs, let Foster get his success on short yardage early, set up play action and get AJ a big score late.  As for the Patriots, they absolutely need to know where JJ Watt is at all times, and that includes if he’s taking a dump during halftime.  The Texans must disrupt Brady and force him into a mistake or two, of they will have a hard time keeping up.  We know Brady and Belichek will execute – the Texans must follow suit to have a chance.

Prediction – Patriots 24, Texans 20

I don’t see another blowout, but the Patriots have home field and a bend-but-don’t break defense that can make big plays.

Seattle at Atlanta

Key #1 – Atlanta has to win sometime…right?

Atlanta is a very solid team, but slightly unbalanced.  Matt Ryan (5^th in passer rating, 4^th in QBR), Julio Jones, Roddy White (ranked 11^th and 9^th in yardage, respectively, combined for 17 TDs), and Tony Gonzalez (3^rd in yardage among TE’s with 8 TD  make for a very strong passing attack).  However, they are 29^th in the league in rushing yards and rushing DVOA.  On defense, they have similar problems, ranking 10^th in DVOA against the pass and 20^th against the run.  At times they struggle with pass protection and turnovers, but overall for the year those number look pretty strong; they allowed only 28 sacks and wound up +13 in turnovers.  Their defense is a classic bend but don’t break (24^th in total yards, but 5^th in points allowed and 3^rd in red zone TDs allowed).   They lost only one game at home, which was a meaningless week 17 game against Tampa Bay.  They’ve beaten Denver, Washington, and crushed the Giants, got off the schnide against the Saints, and found many ways to win even when they didn’t play very well.  They have a quarterback who doesn’t lose at home, with a 33-6 record in the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome. So why doesn’t anyone think they can win this game?

I think it started in 2010, when Atlanta, then 13-3 and playing at home in the second round, got crushed by Green Bay 48-21 as Aaron Rodgers led his team on a Super Bowl winning run.  The following year, the Falcons made it as a wildcard and got destroyed by the Giants, who were making a run of their own to a ring.  It’s amazing to me how quickly people earn and lose reputations as a winner or loser, and Ryan right now is seen as the guy who can’t win a big game.  But let’s be realistic; just about every top QB other than Tom Brady has struggled in his first few playoff outings (Brady didn’t start losing until a bit later).  We still have a very small sample size, and the truth is that all Ryan has done is lose to three teams that won or came damn close to winning the Super Bowl that year, and two of those games were on the road.  All Ryan needs to do is play one great game and win, and that monkey will be off his back.  I don’t see Atlanta laying down a getting blown out as they have in the last couple of years.  But of course, here comes…

Key #2 – …their worst nightmare matchup.

I truly don’t think the Falcons could have played anyone more suited to beat them than these Seattle Seahawks.  Let’s ignore the fact that they have the look of a team in the mold of the 2005 Steelers, 2007 Giants, and 2010 Packers – the low seed team with a chip on their shoulder, quarterback getting hot at the right time, and a nasty defense.  Let’s just look at personnel for now.

•  As we mentioned, one of Atlanta’s greatest strengths is its wide receiver core, with Roddy White and Julio Jones terrorizing defenses all year as perfect complements to each other.  Well, Seattle was maybe the NFL’s best team at defending wide receivers, allowing a 2^nd least 2067 yards to WRs all year with only 10 TDs, tied for 3^rd least.  Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner may be the best cornerback duo is the league, Adderall or not.  The only positive for Atlanta is that stud DE Chris Clemons will be out after tearing his ACL, giving Matt Ryan a little more time in the pocket…if 6’3” monster rookie Bruce Irvin, Clemons’ backup, doesn’t add to his regular season total of 8 sacks.

• Atlanta struggles to defend the run, as we said earlier as well.  Well, all Seattle did was have the highest rushing DVOA all year.  If you aren’t a total stat head and, like me, think its important to actually watch people play, watch this.  Marshawn Lynch is in full Beast Mode right now and playing out of his mind.  Atlanta is going to taste the rainbow whether they like it or not.

• Although only a 2 game sample, Atlanta struggled mightily against mobile quarterback Cam Newton.  In their first meeting, Carolina narrowly lost (mainly because of Ron Rivera, play caller extraordinaire) in Atlanta, but Newton was 15/24 for 215, 2 TDs, with 9 carries for 86 yards and a TD. Later in week 14, Carolina won at home 30-20 in a game that wasn’t that close, going 23/35 for 287 yards, 2 TDs, and 9 carries for 116 yards and a TD.  Enter Russell Wilson, who is averaging a little more than 8 carries and 61 yards rushing with 4 TDs in the last 4 weeks, as Seattle implements a little zone read with its athletic rookie QB.

Seattle looks like a problem for the Falcons.  They have to hope that Matt Ryan continues his stellar play and Russell Wilson remembers he’s a rookie playing on the road.  If not, Seattle might control the flow of this game and we’ll be left thinking if Matt Ryan will ever win the big one.

Prediction: Falcons 28, Seahawks 24

If this game were in Seattle, I’d be picking the other way.  But I think Matt Ryan leads this team to a win and earns some respect.

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