Wild Card Preview
By: Stephen Caronia
Cincinnati at Houston
Key #1 – Who will get to the quarterback more?
Both of these teams’ defensive success are predicated on getting pressure on the QB. Cincinnati is 3rd in the league with 51 sacks, led by Geno Atkins, while Houston is tied for 5th with 44; J.J. Watt led the league with 20.5 sacks. Both Andy Dalton and Matt Schaub struggle mightily when under pressure, but the Bengals have allowed 46 sacks this year (7th most) while the Texans allowed only 26 (7th least). If Cincinnati can find a way to neutralize Watt, they will be able to move the ball against a spotty Houston secondary. The Bengals have a more balanced pass rush, and Houston must keep Schaub upright.
Key #2 – Extending drives
Neither of these teams are great at converting third downs (Houston ranks 17th, Cincy 27th) and both are very solid at stopping the other team on third down (Houston is 4th, Cincy 8th). This game is probably going to have a lot of punts, and a couple of first downs here and there may spell the difference. This is where A.J. Green and Andre Johnson have to step up. Both in the top ten for receiving first downs, can Smith and Johnson be contained by Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph on third down? Also, don’t forget about Jermaine Gresham and Owen Daniels, as both offenses rely on their tight ends as well.
Prediction – Texans 20, Bengals 17
In what I think will turn out to be a slugfest, I think Houston has a couple more weapons than Cincinnati and will turn out to be the difference.
Seattle at Washington
Key #1 – Can Seattle win on the road?
We all know about CenturyLink field and the ridiculous advantage it gives the Seahawks. Unfortunately for Seattle and its fans, we won’t see a game there this season unless Adrian Peterson carries the Vikings to the conference championship and the Seahawks get there as well. Seattle was a perfect 8-0 at home and only 3-5 on the road. However, wunderkind Russell Wilson has improved dramatically away from home, with 4 consecutive road games with a passer rating of 96.8 or better and a QBR of 85 or better. Plus, the 5 road losses came by a combined 24 points. This team isn’t terrible on the road, they’re just in stark contrast to a phenomenal home record.
Key #2 – The Zone-Read Option
Washington has a special kind of talent in Robert Griffin III. He’s like Michael Vick without the turnovers, low completion percentage, and dog killing. Their offense is based on the zone-read option out of the Pistol formation, which is a more complex and sophisticated version of the “wildcat” that became so popular a few years back. This strategy takes full advantage of RG3’s inhuman skill set: track star speed, a strong and accurate arm, and, best of all, his innate ability to read a defensive front. All told, Washington has one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL, leading the league in yards per pass and being 2nd in yards per rushing attempt. Alfred Morris’ powerful, one-cut style is the perfect complement to Griffin and is a huge reason for their success as well. Teams’ needing to respect the run opens the door for such a high YPA for Griffin as well. So how can anyone stop this well-oiled machine? Well, a fast, ball swarming, disciplined defensive unit might be able to. Also, it helps to have corners that are excellent in man coverage, preventing receivers from getting open downfield without a ton of safety help. Sound familiar? Seattle’s defense might be the perfect foil for Washington’s high powered attack, especially with Brandon Browner returning from his suspension and Richard Sherman avoiding his altogether. It’s going to come down to whether or not Seattle’s front can avoid making mistakes in pursuit and keep the big plays to a minimum. Interestingly, Seattle has used the Pistol with Russell Wilson, who is no slouch athletically either. It will be interesting to see if the Seahawks employ it if Marshawn Lynch can’t break through the Redskin’s solid run defense.
Prediction – Seahawks 28, Redskins 21
The difference for me here is the defenses, and I think Seattle’s has a better chance of success.
Indianapolis at Baltimore
Key #1 – Wait, are the Colts actually…good?
I know I may be blaspheming by saying this, given the truly wonderful storyline of Chuck Pagano’s recovery from leukemia and the Colt’s inspiring run. But to be honest, I’m not convinced this team is capable of winning a playoff game on the road. Consider the following:
The Colts’ 11 wins have come by an average of 6.1 points, the lowest of any playoff team.
They are an unsustainable 9-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less.
They are the only playoff team with a negative point differential for the season, a -30.
Their 4 road wins have come against Tennessee, Jacksonville, Detroit, and Kansas City, who have a combined 14-50 record.
I know a win is a win is a win, and 11 wins counts for something. But how many times can the ball bounce the right way for this crew? Here’s another bit of blasphemy I’m going to throw at you – Andrew Luck has been a little – gasp – overrated. Yes he has a penchant for winning games late, and no other rookie QB has had more asked of him than Luck. But he’s going into the playoffs with 5 consecutive games of 50% or less completion percentage and has only topped 200 yards once in the last month. I don’t see how, against a veteran defense such as Baltimore’s, on the road, this team pulls out another win.
Key #2 – Who wins the turnover battle?
The Ravens’ formula for winning would appear simple at first – pound the rock with Ray Rice against the 29th ranked run defense. A quick look at the Ravens playoff history, however, reveals that Ray Rice is not the key to their success. Rice has had 100 rushing yards in only 1 playoff game for the Ravens, a 33-14 road dismantling of the New England Patriots. In the other 5 games as starter, Rice has averaged just 56.6 yards per game. Even against poor run defenses, the Ravens are reluctant to be a run-first team in the post-season. What has been a little more reliable in predicting the Ravens’ success is the turnover battle. Since the 2007 playoffs, the Ravens are 0-4 when losing the turnover battle and a tidy 5-1 when they win it. The only loss? You might remember this sequence from last year’s AFC Championship.
Also keep in mind the following – Indy has the 7th worst giveaway/takeaway ratio at -12, and Baltimore has the 9th best at +9.
Prediction – Ravens 31, Colts 20
I see some mistakes by the young QB on the road and a big win for the Ravens.
Minnesota at Green Bay
Key #1 – AP and what else…
The accomplishments of Adrian Peterson this year cannot be overstated. He was 9 yards shy of the all-time rushing record while the scars were barely healed from his ACL reconstruction. He gets his just about every game, win or lose. He almost single handedly keeps Minnesota’s offense rolling. The Vikes are 5-2 when he’s got 150 or more rushing yards and 5-4 when he doesn’t. He’s got 409 yards in two games against Green Bay this year…and his team is 1-1 in those games. What we find in looking at every Vikings win is that one of 2 things always happens – Christian Ponder has over 200 total yards from scrimmage (passing and rushing) or the defense/special teams scores a touchdown. In other words – AP gets a little help. As good as AP has been, a few scores have to come from somewhere else in order for the Vikings to hang, especially against the Packers. In the playoff clinching win against the Packers, Ponder played the game of his life. He may have to do it again. If the Packers can get pressure on Ponder like they did in their first encounter and control third down conversions and play-action pass, they should win handily.
Key #2 – The Packer Injury Report Clears Up
The Packers are 11-5. They have a 3 seed, meaning they may only play one home game throughout the playoffs. However, they might be the best team in the NFC. We just don’t know it yet.
This team has experienced a rash of injuries (as it seems to many years) to arguably 4 of their best 5 players. Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews, Greg Jennings, and Jordy Nelson have missed a combined 24 games this year. Jennings, Nelson, and Matthews have all shown no ill effects in their recent games, and Woodson is due back this week. Teams have a pretty good track record when getting healthy at the right time. Minnesota is hot and has (in my opinion) the league MVP. They just beat the Packers in week 17. But can they really hang with a team this talented in Lambeau?
Besides, the Packers shouldn’t even be playing until next week.
Prediction – Packers 31, Vikings 14
I’m seeing a major change from the most recent matchup between these two.
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