The Buck Stops Here

If you asked most major league General Managers what rule is most important to follow in acquiring players for their team, the most likely answer would be this: never overpay a player based on previous production.  GMs know to pay for future production from a player, to find a value that is derived from their current skill set and ability and their potential future production.  Nearly every GM makes bad choice at some point and signs a player to a contract that is grossly overvalued.  Giants GM Brian Sabean would love to have the $126 million back that they spent on Barry Zito over the last seven years.  White Sox GM Ken Williams would gladly rethink the decision to pay Adam Dunn $56 million over four years. What happens when one man makes the same mistake though?  Los Angeles Angels GM Jerry Dipoto has done just that, overpaying for three players who represent 35% of the Angels entire team salary.  So the question has to be asked: When does the buck stop with Jerry Dipoto?

Strike One: Albert Pujols

Albert Pujols’ first 10 years in MLB read like a create-a-player’s stats in a video game.  He averaged .331/40/123 over that span with a WAR of 7.8.  You’d be hard pressed to find many others with a 10 year span that was that dominant.  Yet, in the year before Pujols hit free agency, he hit .299/37/99 while posting the lowest WAR of his career at 5.1.  Pujols was going to demand a king’s ransom in free agency, but signing him to a 10 year contract (also known as the Alex Rodriguez Jinx) worth $254 million was incredibly overpaying.

Dipoto had warning signs that Pujols was possibly in danger of beginning his physical decline.  In 2011, Pujols had then-career low numbers in hits, doubles and BB/K ratio, which are signs of declining plate discipline…a player who doesn’t have the same hand speed to cover more of the strike zone resorts to more gambling on pitch counts to produce the same effect.  That didn’t stop Dipoto from pulling the trigger on the deal.  Pujols posted a 4.6 WAR in 2012, and currently has a 1.4 WAR this season.

Strike Two: C.J. Wilson

C.J. Wilson took a little longer than most pitchers to bloom, spending five years in the Texas Rangers bullpen as a reliever.  When he finally became a starter in 2010 however, Wilson didn’t disappoint.  He had a good season, posting a 15-8 record with a 3.35 ERA and an even better season in 2011, going 16-7 with a 2.91 ERA.  His WAR in those seasons?  4.7 in 2010 and 4.4 in 2011.  Yet, the warning signs were there for Wilson as well. Even though he posted the lowest ERA and WHIP of his career in 2011, he also had a career high in HRs allowed, and a career low in swing and miss percentage, which are telltale signs of declining velocity.  Dipoto signed Wilson to a five year, $77.5 millon contract, and Wilson has done nothing but disappoint.  With the Angels, his ERA is up almost a full run over his 2011 season and he’s posted WARs of 0.4 and 0.5.

Strike Three: Josh Hamilton

Josh Hamilton’s past is well documented; but for as much trouble as he’s had off the field, he’s been that brilliant on the field.  Hamilton has 3 seasons of 30+ HRs and 100+ RBIs, while winning the 2010 AL MVP.  Yet, Hamilton’s durability has always been an arguing point of his detractors; he’s only played 140 games two times in his six seasons.  Plus, he’s no spring chicken…Hamilton just turned 32.  Dipoto ignored the warnings and signed Hamilton for $125 million over 5 years.  The result? Hamilton is sporting a -0.2 WAR and was recently dropped to seventh in the batting order.

When Angels owner Arte Moreno opened up the purse strings for his team, I don’t think he envisioned this kind of return for his money.  Pujols, Wilson, and Hamilton will make a combined $44.9 million this season and are currently producing a combined WAR of 1.7. Meanwhile, the Angels best player, Mike Trout, has a WAR of 4.1.  His 2013 salary? $510,000. The dollars and cents don’t add up.  If I was Arte Moreno, I’d use some common sense and start to fix the issue…by firing GM Jerry Dipoto.  The buck stops there.

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