Not Half Bad

We are at the half way point of the 2013 Major League season and nothing has been settled.  There are no run away winners in any division and, in fact, 50% of the teams are within 5.5 games of at least a Wild Card spot.  There are no clear-cut leaders in most of the individual Award races either, but I’ll save that discussion for another day.  So much is still up for grabs and the second half promises to be a dog-fight to the finish in each division with the largest lead being just 5.5 games for the Braves over the Nationals.   And so far, there have been a few very pleasant surprises and some not-so pleasant.  I’ll take you through a quick journey across baseball to size up the races in each division at the mid way point.

The American League East is the best division, on paper anyways.  At the mid-point, all five teams are at .500 or above with the Red Sox holding a 3.5 game edge over second the place Orioles. The Blue Jays have played extremely well in June and have climbed back into the race and sit just 5 games back of a Wild Card spot after a dismal start.   As I wrote last week, watch for this division to be won by the team that stays the healthiest and also makes the most efficient moves at the trading deadline.   As I also wrote back in pre-season, don’t be surprised to see both Wild Card teams come out of the East this year.  With the Orioles & Yankees separated by less than a game for two Wild Card spots and with Tampa just a mere 3 games behind them, it’s a distinct possibility that 3 of those 4 will secure post season spots, the division leading Red Sox being the 4^th team in that equation.

In the Al Central, the Tigers are still holding the lead although one of this year’s surprise teams, the Indians have recently closed to within 2.5 games after falling off the pace a few weeks back.  I think the Tigers are too strong and will hold on to the lead, but the Indians could be a factor in the Wild Card race if they continue to play well.  Justin Verlander has shown some occasional “humanness” and has not been as consistently dominant as in year’s past, but Miguel Cabrera is still a huge factor that will buoy the Tigers for long stretches at a time.  (Even though I consider Cabrera to be the best pure hitter in baseball, at the half way point my choice for AL MVP would be the Orioles’ Chris Davis with his 28 HR’s, 74 RBI’s and .333 average)  The Royals and Twins are still within shouting distance of the Tigers and could be a factor if one of them gets hot in the second half.  If the Royals can find a way to produce runs more consistently, they will be a factor given that they have the stingiest pitching staff in the American League, having yielded just 287 runs so far.  No other team in the AL is below 300 runs allowed.

The AL West looks to be a 2 team race with Texas and Oakland separated by percentage points.  The Angels, despite their large payroll and big time free-agent signings over the last couple of years, are a non-factor at 10 games out.  Having said that, how can that much talent not get their act together and make a run for at least a Wild Card spot?   And will this be the year that the Mariners, who are well out of contention, put “King” Felix Hernandez on the trading block in hopes of garnering some hot prospects?  Personally, Felix Hernandez would look superb in a Red Sox uniform and Boston has the prospects to pull it off. (Sorry Carlo) (EDITORS NOTE: You have a silly accent)

Over to the National League, the Braves enjoy the largest lead of any division leader with a 5.5 game lead over the Nats and 7.5 games over the Phillies.   The Braves don’t give up many runs (271), but they are also the only team in their division who have scored more than 300 runs (326).  The AL East is by far, the most anemic division in the league when it comes to scoring runs and only the Braves are on the positive side of the run differential column.  What’s all this mean?  I don’t know, except to say that I don’t foresee any of the NL teams making a deep playoff run, based on what we’ve seen so far I the first half. (EDITORS NOTE: Not for nothing, but there are two freakin’ AAA teams in the NL east!)

The NL Central boasts the top 2 teams in baseball, winning percentage-wise who happen to be locked in a dead-heat at the half way point of the season.  The Cardinals and the Pirates, arguably the biggest surprise in baseball, are both 48-30 and hold a 3.5 game lead over the Reds.  Essentially, you have 3 of the top 4 teams in the NL in the same division and like the AL (East), both Wild Card teams could easily come from the same division in the NL (Central).  In fact is much more likely since no one is within 5 games of the Reds who have a secure hold on the second Wild Card spot.  Obviously, with the Cards and Bucs tied atop their division, so too are they tied for that first Wild Card spot. And talk about stingy pitching staffs; the Cards (270) and Pirates (275) are ranked 1 and 3 respectfully in terms of fewest runs allowed to this point.

In the NL West, the Diamondbacks have a 3.5 game lead over the Padres and 4 over the Rockies and Giants, though only the Diamondbacks (+20) and Rockies (+25) are in the plus column for run differential.   My gut tells me the Giants will come on strong just as they historically have in the past and will challenge the Diamondbacks down the stretch.  Heck, the Dodgers are only 6 games out, so with all 5 teams still in contention, the NL West could become the wild, wild west in the second half.

With so many teams in contention and thus, less sellers at the deadline, teams are going to have to be creative & aggressive yet intelligent in regards to making deadline deals to help their teams down the stretch.  It’s great for baseball to have so many tight races and so many teams still within arms length of a Wild Card berth.   Only 5 of the 30 teams have a Wild Card deficit in double digits and only 8 teams have a Wild Card deficit greater than 7.5 games.   That should make for a provocative second half.  As for the first half of the MLB season, I think we can all characterize it as, “Not half bad!”
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