Don’t Look Now, Here Come The Jays!
While the rest of the American League has been meandering about, one team has been on fire and has gotten themselves right back into the race. The Red Sox and Yankees have stumbled at 4-6 in their last 10 games and the Orioles have played even at 5-5. The last place team has gone 3-7 in that same span, but its not the same team that’s occupied the AL East cellar all season. The Tampa Bay Rays have slid into last place, 6 games behind the Boston Red Sox, after a huge push by the Toronto Blue Jays who are also now only 6 games out.
The Blue Jays have been the poster child for “overspending doesn’t equal wins” but they have finally caught fire recently, winning 10 straight going into Sundays tilt with the Baltimore Orioles. They have posted a 14-4 record in June and have beaten the AL West Division leading Texas Rangers 6 out of 7 games during this month. In their current 10 game winning streak they have scored 57 runs while yielding only 2 runs in that stretch. Definitely not good news for the rest of the AL East who have been busy keeping each other at arms length while Toronto has surged.
The Blue Jays have an explosive offense led by Edwin Encarnacion, who has 20 home runs and 59 RBI. The Jays actually have 4 other players in double-digit homeruns besides Encarnacion (20). Jose Bautista (15), Colby Rasmus (13), J.P. Arencibia (15) and Adam Lind (10) also have hit 10-plus home runs. Toronto’s 96 total home runs is second in the American League to Baltimore’s 102. Though they are still not near the top in Slugging and Runs Scored, they have been steadily climbing the ladder.
The Jays will need their offense to continue to produce at a monster clip to offset their pitching woes. Though the Jays have pitched better lately, their top 3 starters all have ERA’s over 4.50 and are a combined 12-15. Mark Buehrle leads the top 3 in the rotation with a 4.60 ERA to go with his 4-4 record. Staff ace, R.A. Dickey is 6-8 and the knuckleballer has an ERA of 5.15 and is 3-1 in his last 4 starts. Those numbers may be a bit deceiving as he gave up 14 Earned Runs in those 4 games, one of which was a shutout of the San Francisco Giants. (Is it a surprise that the 2012 National League Cy Young winner pitched well against a NL team?) Brandon Morrow is just 2-3 in 10 starts with a 5.63 ERA to round out Toronto’s top 3 starters.
Toronto is NOT going to continue to play .777 baseball like they have so far in June, but they have gotten themselves back in the race. But if they hope to continue to make a run, they are going to need much more from their pitching staff. Much more or some kind of shot in the arm in the second half of the season. In fact, all of the Al East teams are in need of a shot in the arm!
The division leading Red Sox are in desperate need consistency from the closer position. (EDITORS NOTE: GO WAGNER COLLEGE SEAHAWKS!) They have an otherwise strong pen, so it will be interesting whether they try to get a closer in the trade market or try to fill the hole from within. The Yankees need to get healthy and begin to get younger. (ED: The Yankees were seen handing out contracts at Old Timers Day) Stagnating down near the bottom of the team OBP (.303) is not the Yankee-way that we are used to seeing. Health is definitely a big factor in that dramatic drop off in team OBP. Baltimore looks to have tremendous offensive balance, but their team ERA (4.43) is next to last in the Majors. Baltimore could benefit from some consistency from their number 4 and 5 starters where they have struggled to find a steady hurlers for those spots. As for Tampa, they likewise need pitching help as they are currently just above Baltimore with a 4.34 team ERA. They need to find a third starter to compliment Matt Moore (9-3, 4.13 ERA) and Alec Cobb (6-2, 3.01 ERA). Like Boston, they also need to upgrade the closer role as current closer, Fernando Rodney has blown 5 saves and has an ERA over 5.00 so far.
With the division tightening up, the winner may very well be the team that is most effective in filling their needs between now and the trading deadline. From a Red Sox standpoint, I like the position the team is in with young arms and a beefed up minor league prospect list to either fill some of their needs or to use to secure their needs. Not all the teams in the AL East are in such an enviable position, but still, they will need to get considerable value in order to make it worth letting go one of those top prospects. They can’t trade a prospect for a rental player, that’s rarely led to success.
So keep your eye on the transactions as we get closer to the trade deadline and lets see who makes the best deals, given their individual team deficits. The team that is most efficient and effective filling their holes could very well emerge as the AL East Division winner! Don’t look now, but things are getting real interesting!
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