Fenway Frankness – Early Season Observations
As we work our way through the second week of the season, the Red Sox sit atop the AL East at 5-3, a game ahead of the Yankees and Orioles. There are two things that are obvious to me at this point about the AL East division. One, though the AL East is the strongest division in baseball, each team does have exposable weaknesses. Two, the Division race should be a dogfight to the end!
Given the strength of the AL East teams, it’s possible that both wildcard teams could come out of the division; however, it’s also extremely possible that no wild card teams come out of the division. “How can than be Jimmy D,” you ask? “But you said the this is the best division in baseball!”
Simple, let’s say, hypothetically, that the 5 AL East teams essentially play each other even during the season. In this case, they’d each garner 38 wins within the division (38-38). Let’s assume that at least 3 of them play .600 baseball over the remaining 86 games versus the teams outside of their division. That calculates to roughly 52 additional wins and 90 total wins for the season (38 + 52 = 90). That could put them on the bubble for a playoff spot. They’d be so busy beating on each other within the division, that it could open the door for lesser talented teams to slide into the two wildcard spots by virtue of being in weaker division and thus, accumulating more wins, hypothetically, of course. But I digress; I predict at least one wildcard spot will come out of the AL East.
As for the Red Sox, there is plenty to be excited about . . .and plenty to be concerned about. I am a big fan of the style of baseball they’ve adopted early on. They have displayed a nice balance of pitching, defense and have been opportunistic, aggressive offensively. If they can consistently maintain that balance over the course of the season, they will be a contender, because they don’t have a dominant offense or dominant pitching staff to carry them for an entire season. Balance is the key for them! So far they’ve shown that they can manufacture runs with speed and fundamental baseball, while reverting back to working counts and driving up pitch counts. That’s a formula that worked for the winning Red Sox and Yankee teams over the last decade!
There are questions about the back end of the rotation that will have to be answered. Does Felix Doubront have the stamina to be effective over an entire MLB season, will Ryan Dempster be able to make the transition to the AL and can John Lackey bounce back from Tommy John surgery and return to his old form? How the Sox fair in those 3-5 slots in the rotation could be the biggest determining factor for Boston’s success (or not). Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz have both pitched like aces in winning their first two starts, posting 1.50 ERA & 13 K’s and .64 ERA with 12 K’s, respectively. The only surprise here might be Lester’s quick start given his history of not getting rolling until May. Could this be the year that he puts it all together and makes a Cy Young run? When healthy, he is one of the most dominating pitchers in the AL, so getting off to a great start can only boost his chances.
The bullpen is solid, despite a rare (EDITORS NOTE - We hope not) blow up on Wednesday night against Baltimore. The late inning set up in the bullpen could prove to be one of the best in baseball and will be especially key if their offense struggles to put up runs.
Defensively, the Sox are solid around the infield and would get even stronger if Jose Iglesias gets another shot to prove himself at short. He’s reminds me of a young Omar Vizquel with his defensive flash and still developing bat. It will be intriguing to see how Mike Napoli develops as a first baseman, but thus far he has been a pleasant surprise. The outfield, anchored by Jacoby Ellsbury, is above average defensively, though Johnny Gomes could be an adventure when he is out there. When Jackie Bradley Jr. is out there alongside Ellsbury, it boosts the OF defense significantly.
(EDITORS NOTE – He’s not here for his glove)
It may be early, but it is easy to see that balance will be the key to the Red Sox success in 2013. With the likely late April return of DH, David Ortiz, that can only help the offense’s run production and consistency, assuming he returns to his previous form.
That Old Form, of course being…svelte
They’ll need to continue to play well against the AL East teams if they wish to contend for a playoff spot and if they continue to get that balance of pitching, defense and timely, opportunistic offense, RSN is in for a fun ride this Summer!
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