All’s Wells That Ends Wells

The Yankees are in a bind.  They are expensive.  They are old.  They are hurt.  When you are built around aging stars and then find yourself with a nicked up team, it can be easy to say that the proverbial chickens are coming home to roost.  And to a point that may be correct.  But the Yankees have to keep moving forward.  The word rebuild is not in the vocabulary at the Cathedral.  Even if there is a double secret probationary rebuilding going on.

In the span of weeks the Yankees have lost Mark Teixeira to a tendon sheath injury, for at least a month and if surgery is required, the season, Curtis Granderson to an errant pitch, Alex Rodriguez to hip surgery and Derek Jeter to “I broke my ankle but am a crazy competitor and tried to come back too fast too soon.”  That’s a lot to lose.

These injuries didn’t happen before the winter meetings.  They didn’t occur when Brian Cashman could try to make a splash.  The same Cashman who is hamstrung by the Organization Imposed spending limits.  So, when players are needed and it’s already into Spring Training, the pickings are slim.  If Cashman knew he’d desperately need infield help because the right side of the field is plagued maybe he could have made an offer to a Ty Wigginton.  But he isn’t Nostradamus.  We can use hindsight to say “how dare he not know the dangers of his aging team” but you can’t manage assuming people will get hurt.

So Cashman has been scraping the bottom of the barrel to find help.  Brennan Boesch.  Matt Diaz (not even with the team anymore).  Unlike when A-Rod went down, there are no great options.  This has lead Brian Cashman to trade for the man with the worst contract in baseball whose name doesn’t rhyme with Smalex Blodriguez.

Vernon Wells.

The fans are reacting as if Cashman called each of their mothers Prostitutes.  Tags of #FireCashman were all over twitter.

Let’s just take a moment and breathe.  Be calm and rational and we can find out:

What to make of the Vernon Wells trade?

 

WHAT KIND OF PLAYER ARE THEY GETTING

The Yankees traded for a replacement.  A Fill in player.  A 4th outfielder and Platoon DH.  If something goes wrong and Vernon Wells has to play an extended period of time, it may not be the perfect, but few teams could look to their bench and get someone of his ability.

WHAT IS HIS ABILITY?

Much is made of Wells’ declining ability.  While he is getting older and has been banged up he’s by no means “done.”  The tank isn’t empty yet. especially if he can stay healthy – and a limited schedule could be what the doctor ordered.  He will most likely compete for the left field job.  For those of you who think he’s too stiff to play, I must remind you that Hideki Matsui played that position too.  No one ever confused him with Willie Mays in his last few seasons.  If he is used as the Right Handed Platoon (when that spot is not occupied by any other every day guy) you get this:

 Vs. Left Handed Pitching

(sOPS+ – Splits relative to league.  Over 100 is above Average.)

While Vernon may be inconsistent, looking at his baBIP suggests a very unlucky player in the last few seasons.  Even when his average has left room for improvement, his OBP has given him a little boost.  The Yankee way is to get on base, and making up an additional .60+ points, helps you get on base when the hits just aren’t coming.  He may not give you a ton of power, but unlike the player he’s replacing he won’t strike out several hundred times.  He doesn’t have to be Ty Cobb, he just has to be better than Melky Mesa.  He has to be good enough to be the 4th outfielder.

MONEY DOESN’T MATTER

The Yankees are reportedly paying 6.5 million/year for the next two years, but with some creative accounting that number can actually become a 2 million dollar credit.  Essentially, by manipulating how the Angels pay their share the Yankees can eliminate the Luxury tax figure.  If this happens, this proves that Cashman is a friggin’ genius.  Getting a fourth outfielder for two years, where the second year essentially gives you free money?  That’s talent.  Like it or not Cashman’s got talent in spades.

More importantly, What the hell is 6.5 million dollars to the Yankees.  That’s walking around money.  Money is relative in baseball.  The Yankees, if they so desired could burn that money, whereas the Rays could not.

WHAT IS THE MARKET?

People complaining about this trade can’t answer one question: Who should Cashman have gotten.  A typical response is “ANYONE!”  Brian Cashman knows his farm system better than any of us.  If there was someone he thought could provide the same level of play, don’t you think he’d bring him up?

What about free agents?

Johnny Damon.  Wants to play.  Cashman may be playing hardball because of the way Damon departed but there’s also a reason he’s bounced around the last two years, including getting released by the Indians.  I’d take Wells.

Bobby Abreu.  Can he play outfield everyday?  That’s a necessity.  I’d take Wells.

Grady Sizemore.  There’s already enough health concerns.  Besides New York has had their share of overpaying for guys with bad backs and microfracture surgery.

So what’s the market?  Everyday starters aren’t getting released.  Especially ones with some gas in the tank and experience in the AL EAST.

So what to make of this trade?

Was this a panic trade?  Probably.   Is Vernon Wells the answer.  Probably not.  He is however the best available.

If Vernon Wells can be closer to the player he was before going to LA, then the Yankees will be thrilled.

If Vernon Wells can be serviceable enough to be a backup, then the Yankees will be happy.

If Vernon Wells can somehow create a net positive for the Luxury Tax, the Yankees will be brilliant.

 

Just because this wasn’t a great move means it’s a bad move.  Just because you don’t like it doesn’t mean it’s wrong.  Sometimes you have to take risks.   Other sports cliches.

I don’t love this move.  I’m not even sure if I like it.  But it’s not terrible.  And again, when it comes to 4th outfielders, there are much worse options.
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