5 Questions For the AFC Championship

1) Can the Patriots get to Joe Flacco?

Last week, against a Denver Broncos team with one of the NFL’s top pass rushes, Flacco had a pretty clean jersey all day with only 1 sack and 3 hits.  He was able to take shots effectively downfield, which was the difference in the game.  According to Pro Football Focus, one of my favorite groups of stat geeks, Flacco was middling at best when under pressure, ranking 14^th worst in Accuracy % (a more complete version of completion percentage that removes batted balls, throwaways, drops, spikes, and hits while throwing).  This partially explains why the Ravens are middle of the pack when it comes to converting third downs. Long, sustained drives are not the Raven’s forte. However, the Patriots have a hard time generating a pass rush, so…

2) …do Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones have a few big plays?

The bottom line of that Broncos/Ravens matchup is that the Ravens were able to make huge plays in the passing game to stay in it and win in 2OT.  This is not the Baltimore defense of old and the Patriots, like the Broncos, will move the ball on offense.  Flacco must use his speedy receivers just as well as he did last week for the Ravens to have a chance at keeping up.  Here’s an interesting stat – the Ravens are 9-2 when Flacco completes a pass of 40 yards or more, with the 2 losses being a) a 24-23 loss to Philly because of a horrible offensive pass interference call made by a scab ref in the fourth quarter, and b) the home thrashing at the hands of the Broncos and, well, who’s laughing now.  Our first to points go hand in hand, and if Flacco is comfy in the pocket and chucks a few deep, they will have a chance to win.

3) Can the Ravens hold the Pats to a few field goals?

Again, the Patriots WILL move the ball.  But here and there if the Ravens can stop them from getting in the end zone, they will consider that a defensive victory.  Not having massive end zone target Rob Gronkowski will hurt, but bubble screens with Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd fades, and Stevan Ridley runs have proven effective as well.  New England is the best in the NFL at red zone TDs, and the Ravens are the second best at stopping them.  Who wins, the irresistible force or the immovable object?

4) Can Ray Rice do it again?

Ray Rice has been successful against the Patriots over the last few years, averaging 128 yards from scrimmage and totaling 3 TD in four meetings.  He’ll be an important cog Sunday as well, as I expect a cat and mouse game of the New England defense blitzing, showing blitzes, stacking the box, and playing safeties deep, and a steady running game will help not only move the chains, but open up the all-important deep passes.  Extending drives will also help keep the speedy New England offense off the field as much as possible.  Look for early pounding of the rock – with some bombs sprinkled in VERY early – to establish pace.

5) Will the Patriots offense ever make a big mistake?

We saw it in the Houston game last week – when the Patriots play their brand of efficient football, they are nearly impossible to beat.  In last year’s AFC championship, the Ravens forced 2 Tom Brady interceptions and won the turnover battle, only to lose because of a drop and a missed 32 yard field goal. While turnovers are crucial, all mistakes may be the difference as well.   Incidentally – while Flacco ranked low in Accuracy % under pressure, Brady was even lower, ranking 8^th worst in the league.  The bad news for Baltimore is that while Brady may not fare well under pressure, he is pressured the third lowest amount in the league, mainly because the ball is gone in under 3 seconds just about every time.  He crushes 8 man blitzes because he always knows exactly who is open and where they are.  So blindly rushing DBs from the edge will not work.  John Harbaugh and DC Dean Pees better cook up another way to make Brady miss.

Prediction:

Patriots 28, Ravens 24

Don’t be shocked if this game looks a lot like the game against Denver…only a Bill Belichek coached player will NEVER let up a 70 yard pass to lose.

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