Divisional Round Preview – Saturday Edition
Baltimore at Denver
Key #1 – Can the Macbook be Stopped?
Like a Macbook, Peyton Manning has few glitches in his system. This year, with a new team, new set of weapons, and same old offensive coordinator (let’s be real, its himself), Manning had arguably the second best season of his career. He didn’t miss a beat against the Ravens, by far the toughest game during the second half of the Broncos’ schedule, but the real story for me was the Denver running game. The Ravens got gashed by Knowshon Moreno to the tune of 115 yards on 21 carries, not to mention another 52 yard from Jacob Hester and Ronnie Hillman. If Denver can keep the defense honest with effective running, I think Manning is going to downright abuse this secondary. The Ravens are getting a couple of defensive pieces back in this game from the first match-up, namely Ray Lewis and Bernard Pollard, so that should lead to some improvements against the run. The problem is that Manning’s CPU is still running the show – he doesn’t rely on play action or safeties in the box. Baltimore’s secondary is without Ledarius Webb and doesn’t have much else other than an aging Ed Reed. Look for classic Manning, creating and exposing match-ups all over the field against an undermanned unit. Baltimore is 2-6 when the opposition scores 21 points or more, and one of those may have been gifted to them by the scab refs (read: they can’t win shootouts)and Joe Flacco has 6 games where he failed to reach 200 yards passing this year. Peyton has done that 6 times too…since November 2006 (In games he played all the way through, anyway. Sometimes he rests in the second half after decimating teams in the first half or in games after clinching the division).
Key #2 – Stopping the Denver pass rush
Denver led the NFL in sack with 52 this year, led by terror Von Miller and almost as terrifying Elvis Dumervil. Denver doesn’t force a lot of turnovers, but it doesn’t have to when it gets so many sacks on third down. Baltimore was 1-12 on third downs and Flacco got smack-oed (sorry) 3 times for sacks and another 9 times on QB hits. This absolutely cannot happen again for the Ravens to have any chance in this game. Baltimore hasn’t been great at protecting the QB, allowing the 13th most sacks in the NFL all year. This is where Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce have to come in. Its not about ball control as much as about neutralizing the pass rush – the best defense is to run right at it. I know we spoke last week about how important the turnover battle is for the Ravens, but I think they must use the run to protect Flacco and by all means necessary avoid long third downs with Miller and Dumervil flying off the edge into Flacco’s face.
The Prediction: Broncos 30, Ravens 17
The Broncos are way too balanced for this Ravens team.
Green Bay at San Francisco
Key #1 – Keeping Aaron Rodgers Upright.
Aaron Rodgers is very good at what he does. Frighteningly good. How he can accomplish what he does without anything resembling a legitimate running game and one of the worst pass protecting lines in football is a mystery to me. When he is protected, he’s completely unstoppable, and the 49ers know this. The Niners have a good but not stellar pass rush, led by the great Aldon Smith, but their defensive dominance is more due to their exceptional talent at all three levels and almost perfect fundamentals and discipline. In the trenches, Justin Smith leads a solid line, at linebacker they have two absolute tackling machines in Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman, and Charles Rogers, Donte Whitner, and Dashon Golson make for a very solid secondary.
So who’s covering James Jones and Randall Cobb?
I don’t know, and I don’t think anyone knows. The packers are excellent candidates for the old “backups play a ton due to injury, develop over a season, just in time for the usual starters to comeback and now you have twice the number of skill players you had before” trick. Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings have messed a combined 13 games due to injury, opening the door for Jones to nab Nelson’s insane TD rate and Cobb to make the leap from “scary special teams guy who might make a play” to “how the hell is this their third best receiver he’d start for 28 other teams guy.” So how do you stop this team? Fluster Rodgers. The only way to cover the packers is to get enough pressure by rushing 4-5 and hoping your secondary does a good job when loaded up with personnel. This is where Aldon Smith comes in, who has had flashes of brilliance this year on his way to 19.5 sacks. If he can pressure Rodgers consistently or at least eat up blockers, that will allow SF to keep a bevy of DBs on the field deep to combat the numerous spread formations employed by Green Bay. If SF is forced to blitz, then things will get interesting.
Another interesting match-up to keep an eye on is the Green Bay RBs catching passes against the Willis/Bowman combo. DuJuan Harris and the re-animated corpse of Ryan Grant have been a big part of the offense catching screens as of late, a facet of the offense San Fran defends extremely well. I can see Rodgers throwing the ball 50-60 times in this game. Look for screens, naked bootlegs, and timing patterns to throw the Niners’ front off as Rodgers tries to matriculate the ball downfield.
I’d like to mention that if Justin Smith and Aldon Smith are both hampered by injury, the Niners are in big trouble.
Key #2 – Big Play Clay and Charles Woodson
The Packer defense has had some moments this year when healthy. Last week they did a great job containing Adrian Peterson, although one must consider that they were playing at home against a backup…who is playing behind someone who may be a backup. Colin Kaepernick, despite the controversy surrounding him and his usurping of Alex Smith, has been excellent in his stead, tallying a passer rating of 98.3 and a QBR of 76.8 in the process of sealing the division crown down the stretch. The 49ers also have the 3rd and 5th most efficient passing and running games in the NFL, making their low mistake (second lowest giveaway total, 16) offense balanced and potent.
The problem the Packers have is that they have not consistently shown an ability to be a stalwart defense week in and week out. They’ve had some big numbers hung on them at times this year, especially on the ground. While I think they can move the ball on anyone, they can’t count on a season high output in San Fran. The defense, therefore, must force some big plays in the form of turnovers and sacks. The Packers are 10-1 this year when forcing at least one turnover, and they don’t turn the ball over either (also 16 give aways). Kaepernick has been unflappable, and I don’t expect jitters in this one. But this defense is experienced enough to make a play or two and keep the burden moderate on Aaron Rodgers and the offense. If I had to pick which QB has a greater chance of making a mistake, I’m taking the guy who doesn’t have the MVP and Super Bowl ring.
Prediction – Green Bay 27, San Fran 24
I like Green Bay here in a minor upset because their strength play well to San Francisco’s minor weaknesses.
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