I love football.

I’m a football fanatic.  I can’t get enough of football.  I play fantasy football.  I play real football.  I watch football.  I get excited thinking about football. I get slightly aroused typing the word football.

I love John Madden like he’s my grandfather.  I think Fred Biletnikoff should be on Mount Rushmore.  I narrate walking my dog in John Facenda’s voice.  I own a football card autographed by Martin Mull.

He’s a Browns fan.

My girlfriend is Alison.

Until she met me, she couldn’t pick a football out of a lineup.

Hand me the keys, you fucking cocksucker.

Now, she can do that, but not much else.  I like it like that.  She doesn’t need to be a football fan.  She can appreciate a good display of athleticism, occasionally casting a glance at the television and saying “Wow, that was pretty good, right?” after watching Calvin Johnson jump 30 feet in the air and catch a touchdown pass in traffic.  She’ll also ask how my fantasy team is doing.  But outside of those things, she could not possibly care less about the NFL.

Which is perfect for my little experiment.

We are bombarded with “experts” constantly pontificating and prognosticating on happenings in the NFL.  An overwhelming majority of the time they are either a) stating the obvious or b) wrong.  Are they really that good at predicting what’s going to happen?  Are they even that good at pointing out what is actually going on? I’m not sure, at least when it comes to some.

That’s why I want to see if my girlfriend, who literally knows almost nothing about the NFL, can beat the so-called experts at their own game.  Each week, I’m going to put her weekly picks against the spread in the NFL up against the experts over at CBS Sports.  Just for fun, and probably my humiliation, I’m going to pair her’s up with mine and see who comes out on top.  I’ll provide a further explanation for her picks and my picks.

Our picks will be posted soon.  Let’s finally set the record straight – almost no one knows what their doing picking against the spread.

It’s a game about a game.

Within this game, we try to assign a point total to reflect a real performance by a player.  In American football, with 22 moving parts on the field at all times each having an impact on the outcome, it is very difficult to distill the true value of a player down to a number or two. That’s why groups like Football Outsiders are always coming up with gigantic formulas to try to compress 500 variables into one numerical output.  In fantasy football, we want a little more simplicity. We want yards, TDs, and if you want to get super fancy, receptions.  It’s more fun that way.

However, there is a big discrepancy between real performance and fantasy performance when it comes to quarterbacks, much bigger than with any other position. With backs and receivers, efficiency plays a role but yards and TDs tell a lot of the story.  You don’t hear “that guy’s a great running back in fantasy but not in real life” very often.  You hear it with QBs all the time. There’s a reason why you can win a fantasy championship with Tony Romo as your quarterback and…well you get the idea.  In addition, there are some QBs who play efficiently and generally are very good at what they do and would never sniff your fantasy roster.

I first became acutely aware of this watching Eli Manning and Michael Vick earlier in their careers.  I’d sit, frustrated, watching Manning throw ball after ball in the dirt, completing a little more than 50% of his passes.  Yet somehow, he’d come up with 15 fantasy points because he had 225 yards, 2 TDs, and a pick, a decent fantasy day.  Vick was even more maddening to me, as he’d have a stat line like this: 14 for 27, 154 yards, 1 int, 68 rushing yards and a rushing TD – aka 16 points, again a decent day.  Meanwhile, a look at the game for both these players would reveal an offense that couldn’t move the ball, usually a double digit loss, and some garbage time yards and a score that boosted their numbers.  I hated this idea.

On the flip side, I was watching Chad Pennington years ago when he was with my beloved Jets and afterwards with the hated Dolphins.  Pennington had games with 225 yards too, with 2 TDs, maybe an interception here and there.  But he was 15 for 20.  Sustained drives.  Played within an efficient offense.  And yet, at the end of the day, his numbers looked just like Manning’s or Vick’s.

That’s fantasy football, I’d hear people say.

Hogwash.

The NFL is a quarterback driven league, especially today.  In my belief, we need to close the gap a bit between how the QB plays in real life and how they are represented in fantasy football.  So I came up with a very simple way to include completion percentage – albeit a bit flawed and incomplete measure of efficiency – in fantasy football numbers.

For every complete pass, a QB gets 0.6 points.  For every incomplete pass, a QB gets -1 points.  It sounds weird, but hear me out.

In the NFL, the idea of completing just 60% of your passes and being elite is dead (despite what John Clayton says).  It doesn’t mean you are bad, but a quick look at the numbers reveals that you need 60% just to be ranked in the top 20.

(Please click to enlarge)

So with my idea, the threshold for gaining points because of your percentage is right above 60%:

5/10 = -2 points

6/10 = -0.4 points

7/10 = 1.2 points

Now, some may say “why not just award points for percentage in a tiered system (ie, 60-64% = +1, 65-69 = +3, etc or something like that).  By taking each throw into account, you can reward a QB for sustaining a high percentage for longer.  Let’s use 2/3 (about 67%) as an example:

2/3 = 0.2 points

4/6 = 0.4 points

8/12 = 0.8 points

16/24 = 1.6 points

The longer a QB does well, the more points are awarded to him.

Let’s look at how using this rule in my league last year worked out. Here are the juxtaposed numbers with standard ESPN rules and my league’s rules:

(Please click to enlarge)

That’s the top 20.  What’s interesting is that 19 of 20 QBs are the same, but the deck has been shuffled.  Rodgers jumps to the top, a hair ahead of Peyton Manning and then Matt Ryan.  Josh Freeman is off the list, replaced by Philip Rivers.  There are slight jumps and falls within the list that represent bonuses for efficiency, not just chucking the ball 50 times per game (like Andy Dalton jumping over Matt Stafford, or Matt Schaub leaping over Josh Freeman).

The most polarizing figure here is Andrew Luck.  Luck was lauded all year for his play, especially in big moments.  Amazingly, he was the third best rookie QB last year, behind Russell Wilson and RGIII. Yet in standard fantasy leagues, he was ranked ahead of Wilson and just behind RGIII.

Luck did some great things last year.  His team went 11-5 (although his Colts were literally the worst 11-5 team in the history of the NFL) and he came up very big in the fourth quarter a number of times.  More was asked of Luck than any other rookie QB, as he attempted the most passes for a rookie in NFL history and had the most yardage ever for a rookie as well.

However…

He is the poster child for why I think completion percentage should be included in fantasy football.  He had many games where he absolutely crippled his offense with incomplete after incomplete, only to finish with big yardage numbers and a few TDs and a great fantasy day.  The best two examples of this are week 3 against Jacksonville and week 13 against Detroit:

Luck was a rookie, and this is not a smear campaign.  But should we be rewarding a QB who can’t complete 50% of his passes but plays in a pass-happy offense and chucks it enough to wind up with tons of yards? I don’t think so.

To nail my point home, let’s put another game next to Luck’s week 13:

Aaron Rodgers played a truly impressive game.  Luck did not.  It’s reflected the Luck’s paltry QBR.  However, you’d never know it by looking at the standard fantasy numbers.

While not perfect, my completion points system isn’t complicated, and it will help avoid those “bad real-life, great fantasy” performances that happen so often with QBs.

Greg Vitucci’s Stop! Hamels Time(46-22-2; 2^nd place) sends Adrian Beltre and Ryan Doumit to #42Forever (25-43-2; 9^th place) for Yadier Molina.

There are few elite catchers in fantasy baseball.  Yadier Molina is the most elite catcher for someone who isn’t also eligible to play first base. Molina has been essentially a .300 plus hitter for the last four seasons. He’s had a career year each of the last two seasons in terms of home runs and runs batted in. He’s only 30 years old though he’s been in the big leagues for what feels like forever.   He truly is a model of consistency and reliability for fantasy catchers.

I hadn’t drafted toward catcher being a strength, but it was quickly becoming a weakness.  With A.J. Pierzynski injured and nobody of real impact on the waiver wire I began to think about making a move. I’m also pretty sure someone picked up J.P. Arencibia (who has since cooled off anyway) just so I couldn’t.

If you, “Follow the Fantasy” and keep up with the articles you know that I had both Adrian Beltre and Chase Headley, two amazing third baseman. I also have Albert Pujols and David Ortiz two fantastic First baseman.  (EDITORS NOTE:  And this is why Fantasy Baseball is insane, you can consider David Ortiz a First Baseman) While I was flourishing playing the matchups and rotating the 4 men, between three slots I knew one of them could serve as great trade bait.  If I was to move Headley or Beltre I had to have confidence that I could insert the slow starting Albert Pujols at utility with David Ortiz at 1B. Albert has been hot the last two week so thus far I haven’t seemed to skip a beat. Needless to say I had a surplus of offense at the corners, but not behind the plate.

So I contacted Jackie who was in last place and told him I wanted Molina.  He didn’t want Pujols because the Angels and Pujols haven’t hit.  Pujols also has been hampered by injuries slightly so far this season. Jackie didn’t want Ortiz, because he wasn’t buying into Papi’s amazing start long term.

That left Headley or Beltre.  Beltre has been on fire lately raising his average 48 points to .291 in the last 9 days. He’s on pace to have another fantastic season. Headley was the National League leaders in runs batted in last season.  Since coming back from a spring training hand injury he’s play fantastic hitting steadily around the .290’s. Something that could easily be overlooked is Headley’s 17 stolen bases last year compared to Beltre’s one.  I need all the swiped bags I can get.  Lastly Headley just turned down a mid-season contract extension which means he’s playing to get PAID.

On paper with Beltre’s stats it is easy to say I overpaid for Molina who is only a catcher. Maybe I did but in my opinion it was worth securing up the catchers slot. I had the offensive depth to deal a MVP candidate and replace him with another.  Headley is a top tier 3B and provides a category Beltre didn’t while providing excellent (maybe not as good) numbers in the other categories.

Short Term Winner:

Probably Jackie he got back a monster in Beltre. I got back an exceptional, perennial All- Star and probable Hall of Fame catcher in Molina. Oh yeah and he got Ryan Doumit, like that really mattered.

Gee’s BeastModeBar10der (44-20- 6; 1^st place) sends Ernesto Frieri, Jon Lester and Manny Machado to Travis’s I’mBack! YouKnowIt! (21-47-2; 10^th place) for Jered Weaver (DL) and Michael Young.

Manny Machado is basically a rookie, who came up late last season to help the Orioles down the stretch. He moved to third base, with his natural position being shortstop, occupied by J.J. Hardy.  Appropriate because A-rod is his idol and stands where Cal Ripken Jr. stood after making the same switch.  His numbers were strong but not ungodly in his 50 games last season.  So when he wasn’t drafted and two weeks into the season he was struggling he was still a blip on the fantasy radar, and a deep third base. Well since about April 11^h he has been absolutely amazing. On April 18^th Gee picked him up off the waiver wire, and never looked back. With Mark Trumbo as his regular third baseman Gee seized the opportunity to move one of them for a pitching upgrade. Obviously Machado is an upgrade for Travis than starting Michael Young.

Ernesto Frieri is the strikeout throwing closer for the Angels. This year he has amounted 9 saves already with 28 K’s in only 20 innings. Though he’s only blown one save this season he has yielded 5 earned runs. That’s not a great ratio for only 20 innings of work. His value going forward in the season greatly depends on if the Angels (WHO SHOULD BE A FUCKING OFFENSIVE JUGGERNAUT) can pull their heads out of their asses. Don’t be confused Frieri has plently of value, but it could be way more. Travis badly needed a closer, only having Aroldis Chapman previously. These two closers aren’t going to win Travis the saves category weekly but maybe now he has a chance.

Jon Lester stunk last season. His start this season is a microcosm of the Red Sox flying out of the gate this season.  He is now 6-1 with his only loss coming from the White Sox, who always smack around Lester.  His 3.15 ERA is 60 points lower than his career numbers.  I don’t see him staying this hot all year, much like I don’t see Boston staying super competitive all season.

Jered Weaver while currently on the disabled list is a top 5 fantasy pitcher regardless. Whether or not he rebounds strongly is yet to be seen, but I think Weaver will come back fine. His elbow injury was after all to his non throwing arm. He will again be a sub 3.00 ERA pitcher.

Short Term Winner:

Travis. Even though he gave up a fantastic pitcher in Weaver he got in return a star third baseman a quality starter and a top 15 closer. Weaver isn’t going to be ready for another month plus. So in the short term Travis was definitely the winner.

 
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Jim Henderson is in fact not the creator of The Muppets, he is the closer for the Milwaukee Brewers. He took over the role from the incumbent John Axford, after Axford blew several saves early in the season. With the way Henderson has pitched lately, 6 base runners in his last 9 appearances, his job appears to be very secure, which is a major concern when it comes to closers. But let us face facts; Henderson is on a Brewers team that won’t generate too many save situations. He is maybe a top 15 closer.
Homer Bailey, starter for the Cincinnati Reds, had a real breakout season in 2012. For the first time in his career Bailey started more than 30 games and truly excelled. He posted 168 strikeouts and career low 3.68 earned run average. Bailey while only having 2 two wins this year looks to be improving on last year’s stat line with 55 K’s and a 3.08 ERA.

Topher really needed to boost his saves output. His two closers before the trade were Jonathon Papelbon and Brandon League. Those closers combined have 17 saves and 20 strikeouts. Commish had closers to give owning Kimbrel, Balfour, Valverde, and previously Henderson.
The Commish had a good and large starting staff before acquiring Bailey; King Felix, Ian Kennedy, Zach Greinke, Yovanni Gallardo, Adam Wainwright, Matt Garza (DL), Patrick Corbin, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Tim Hudson. Topher’s rotation is impressive as well with Masterson, AJ Burnett, Wade Miley, Kyle Loshe, Matt Harrison (DL), Lance Lynn, Matt Cain and Kyle Kendrick. With those pitchers Topher could afford to deal a solid tier two-ish starter. I just don’t think the Commish needed another starting pitcher, for two reasons. Firstly, he needs an outfielder more urgently, and secondly as a competitor in the league that is an impressive staff to challenge.

Short Term Winner:

The Commish by a nose. His staff got stronger without giving up a major piece. He got a rook for a knight. And everyone knows the knight is useless with its stupid “L” shaped moves. You can never have enough quality starters in fantasy and real baseball. Commish in turn is going to flip one of those starters for an outfielder. Topher’s bullpen got stronger yes but I don’t think his now 3 closers are going to put him over the top and turn around his season.  For Bailey’s value Topher could have done better.

TRADE 2

The Commish’s TheChampisHere (36-29-5; 4th place) sends Chris Davis and Tony Cingrani to Harold’s Fireballz (32-32-6) for Adrian Gonzalez.

Who the fuck is Tony Cingrani? In fact he is nobody, because he’s already been optioned to Triple –A. This trade boils down to swapping two top tier 1b/OF. Davis of the Balitmore Orioles, had a solid season last year and has thus far this season has made the jump to star. Batting .313 with 12 HRs, 40 RBIs, and 26 runs scored. Gonzalez the veteran is hitting .331 with 4 HRs, 29 RBIs and 11 runs scored on an offensively lacking L.A. Dodgers.

The Commish here is selling high. We don’t know if Davis’ numbers are for real or not yet. If they are, he is going to have a TREMENDOUS season. If this is just an early season burst the league will figure him out. The Commish hopes it’s the latter and is relying on Gonzalez, who has been a star for years, to puts up his usual All Star caliber numbers.

Harold is praying for the former. He’s hoping that Davis continues to mash like its 1998 and is the heart of a rising team, on the real and fantasy diamond. In the week since this trade went down Davis didn’t disappoint hitting .316 with 3 RBIs, 3 Runs, and one round tripper.

Short Term Winner:

I’m going to side with Fireballz here. He’s getting a young stud hopefully entering his prime, on a team finding its stride. Toronto and Tampa bay are soon to be complete afterthoughts in that division and the Orioles could challenge the Yankees for the division and easily win a wild card. Gonzalez while a proven star isn’t exactly young, which means more prone to possible injuries. Also unless Gonzalez is traded he is trapped on the weak hitting Dodgers, which means his run total is going to stay minuscule. Right now the ceiling is just too high for Davis.

Come back tomorrow for a review of the other two trades that occurred, including one of my own. See if I made a grave mistake or an amazing acquisition.

 
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As usual the category that would be a defeat and would eradicate my shutout was stolen bases.  Jason Segura alone couldn’t steal me the category. However every other category was an ass whooping that would have made Stone Cold Steve Austin proud.  Picture him and I standing victoriously over Harold, toasting a beer, before he gives me a stunner (that I totally oversell) just because he’s the rattlesnake.

Max Scherzer was a stud this week, donating two wins and 18 strikeouts to the cause. Kershaw and Dempster didn’t produce any wins but had ERAs of 1.50 or lower. Newcomer Brian Cashner of The Padres didn’t fare well in his debut giving up 4 earned runs and going just 4 innings against the AAA team that is the Chicago Cubbies.  He’ll get one more chance to stay in the fantasy majors. And as always Ryan Vogelsong has been a disappointment and I still haven’t replaced him.  I swear ill cut the cord this week.

My bullpen however would keep chugging along, getting wins out of Parnell and Perez because their teams (Mets and Indians) stink and save situations aren’t plentiful.  Mujica saves are coming in bunches like bananas or… um, other things that come in bunches. He completed another 4 successful attempts this week, giving him 8 on the season. Mariano, well he’s Mariano and more predictable than fat girls at last call.  (Editors Note: Though predictable no one has ever hid Mariano Rivera from his friends)

Allen Craig has found his stroke, everyone watch the fuck out.  The Cardinals first baseman has struggled a bit this season, considering he was one of the highest rated first baseman preseason.  From April 29^th to May 5^th he raised his average 19 points with 3 multi-hit games including his first homerun of the season. Former Cardinals’ first baseman Albert Pujols was active early in the week and I benefitted from his 3 home runs, but benched later in the week as he missed a few games and slumped with foot injuries. Weird and annoying to think that first round draft pick Albert Pujols is ridding the bench for the time being.

Nobody (except me of course) (ED: And Jim Derochea) in the world thought David Ortiz would start and stay as hot as he has been.  When the week concluded on the fifth of May, Papi was hitting .440. I certainly don’t expect him to hit at that pace forever, but he’s not too shabby a replacement for Fat Albert in the 1B slot.  With Papi in the field the utility (DH) position opens, and it allows me to play both my star third baseman, Chase Headley and Adrian Beltre.  Headley told the Padres to shove their contract offers up their asses until the end of the season and is officially in a contract year.  Next stop, the Bronx?

A.J. Pierzynski has been in and out of the lineup with a strain right oblique. While I didn’t need to replace him while extinguishing Fireballz; not getting any at bats from that spot in the future is a real problem. Russell Martin of the Pirates, Braves’ Evan Gattis (also playing OF and 1B with McCann returning) and Toronto’s J.P. Arencibia are top candidates on the waiver wire if Pierzynski’s discomfort continues.

With J.J. Putz blowing up, landing on the disabled list and requiring “major elbow surgery” there is a race to be the Arizona Diamondbacks’ closer.  The not so slim Heath Bell and the less experienced David Hernandez are the prime candidates for the job. One will be a good pick up and could bolster your bullpen or be valuable trade bait.

(Ed: Not my proudest moment, but I always think of this when JJ Putz comes up)

Braves’ shortstop Andrelton Simmons has been shooting up the transaction trends after a big game on Monday. The 23 year old Simmons has steadily been raising his batting average over the last two weeks. Since being moved to the bottom half of the order, Simmons has found some pop; going deep twice on Monday.  Simmons is still available in over 50% of leagues.

Another infielder who is catching fire this week is Jed Gyorko of San Diego. Eligible to play second and third, Gyorko has hit .333 over the last two weeks with 3 homers. His overall average is just .271 but he plays a hollow Marlins team and the Tampa Bay Rays this week.

I play Travis this week with his team I’mBackYouKnowIt which is a reference to the fact that he’s a fantasy deadbeat, and was suspended (chose not to play) for a season.  While he (maybe) eventually pays the Commish every season he’s a torturous fantasy prick, the kind no commish wants to deal with. It will take 200 text messages to get the money out of him in September.  Sure he will occasionally glance at his team (hopefully more after his beloved Islanders are eliminated from the playoffs) but is never open to trades or improving his team.  But eventually he will quit and everyone will hate him for keeping all-stars on his bench or DL who could greatly assist a competitive team.   What really is the cherry on top is his braggart attitude towards being a fantasy twat-waffle.

In closing don’t be (or stop being) this guy.

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I followed my own advice and picked up shortstop Jean Segura of Milwaukee. The man is hot, (in more ways than one…) batting a .350+ average and stealing bases at a consistent rate, which I badly needed. Angel Pagan hit the cutting room floor to create some the roster spot. Pagan has fantasy value however he wasn’t producing where I needed him to, stolen bases.  Martin Prado has been sent to the bench as a utility player. Mr. Prado emailed me to express his disappointment, I told him to bring his average up. I still lost the stolen base category but I see that trend getting bucked like a bronco with the addition of Segura.

As you can see 3 of the 5 offensive categories were extremely close with home runs resulting in a tie. Receiving no home runs by Albert Pujols, Ian Kinsler or Dexter Fouler was a disappointment and a win that slipped though my fingers. What I found most impressive was that I had 6 players hit over .300! David Ortiz has been crushing the ball since starting the season late with heel spurs; he has more RBI’s than games played. I’m still searching the market to trade Papi, Albert, Chase Headley or Adrian Beltre plus a closer for an elite starter or outfielder. I simply don’t need this many bench players really, all of which are starting caliber. My bench is more crowded than an inner city school’s ESL classes.  (EDITORS NOTE: That’s pretty crowded awful Greg!)

With less people on my bench I could have another starter.  With another starter I could have tied or won the wins category.  With another starter I could have tied or won the strikeouts category. While a 5 man rotation works in the big leagues, here on the cyber space diamond 7 starters probably works best in this particular roster format.

Clayton Kershaw gave me 17 strikeouts this week and a victory to set an example for the rest of the pitching staff.  Ryan Dempster up in Bean Town has been a quiet surprise thus far, with 43 k’s and a very respectable ERA in the low 3.00’s.  Ryan Vogelsong is on the chopping block however.  With only 26 strikeouts and an ERA higher than me, Vogie might get ousted to the fantasy minors.  I think it is safe to say that Vogie is never going to find that lights out stuff of his breakout season 2011 when he had a 2.71 ERA. (EDITORS NOTE: That’s what he wants you to think…till you drop him!) Max Sherzer’s 9.00 ERA and Vogie’s 6.75 inflated what would have been a spectacular performance from the rest of the staff. Maybe without those two atrocities I could have competed with the ultra unfathomable ERA of 1.34, Gee put up this week.  This is in fact the lowest fantasy ERA ever, its science look it up.  (ED: It is neither)

After an impressive outing against the defending champ Giants, Andrew Cashner of the Padres is a hot pickup this week for starters. While not striking out the world Kyle Kendrick has strung together several appearances including shutting out the Mets. Look to pick him up to average down a ballooning weekly ERA. These guys are top candidates to supplement my pitching staff.

Players on your roster that might be weighing you down… the Mets. Get rid of them while there is still time, Daniel Murphy’s average is plummeting, and John Buck will come back down to earth.  Other players that are overdue to be cut might be David Freese of the Cardinals, and Ben Revere of the Philadelphia Crap Sandwiches.  Why anyone would ever have Revere I don’t understand, but he is owned in about 50% of yahoo leagues.  His 6 stolen bases don’t justify his .204 average. You can do better, surf the waiver wire.

This upcoming week I will be playing a fantasy rookie, Harold.  Harold’s team Fireballz hasn’t had a win since the Clinton administration, no but really he hasn’t won since week one.  While he has an impressive outfield of Adam Jones, Carlos Beltran and Ryan Braun and Josh Hamilton his team just hasn’t put it all together.  Also his pitching staff is pretty weak, void of any true ace besides Matt Harvey. I hope to use this weaker opponent to catapult myself back into first place.

I’m 5.5 games back in second place of the Commish who is battling my roommate, Robert who is in third.  If they have a close game and I have a decisive victory the throne will again be mine, and once I’m back on top I don’t plan on relinquishing my crown.  It’s a long fantasy season, you can’t win the ‘ship week one, but you certainly can lose it.

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It wasn’t the most glorious of fantasy weeks as I only squeezed out a 5-5 tie to my co-inhibitor.  But really, I was lucky to eek out a tie as I was trailing for most of the week.  On Sunday I knew I desperately needed a big showing.  I had lost games to bad weather in Denver, and the terrible occurrences and the ensuing manhunt in Boston.

After a stirring f-bomb latent speech David Ortiz would lead his team through an emotional double header. Alex Gordon of the Royals played both games hitting .375 with 3 runs, a home run and an rbi. Those runs would lead to the sole offensive category I would capture this week. I picture Alex Gordon literally grabbing an oversized W from my roommate’s furry little palms.

Pitching wise I again dominated in the saves category winning 8-5. For the third straight week I also won the strikeout category.  As in real baseball good pitching doesn’t always translate into victories.  I had an ERA of 3.16 almost a full point better than my opponents and a lower whip but he had 2 more victories.  What is truly alarming is I only collected 1 win all week.  I currently don’t have a free roster spot to pick up a spot starter a few times a week to steal some W’s but it’s a strategy I have utilized in the past.  As I’m currently trying to shop a third and/or first baseman maybe some roster space will be achieved shortly.  Visualize a door to door salesman pitching corner infielders and closers.

I released Kelvin Herrera who didn’t seize the Royals’ closer position for St. Louis Cardinals’ closer Edward Mujica.  Mujica is 4 for 4 in save opportunities thus far this season.  My other transaction of the week was to drop John Lannan after he landed on the disabled with a strained tendon and took Chase Headley off the DL. David Ortiz was eligible to also come off the DL but I had no roster space for him. After all he is, “Big Papi” if fantasy baseball was anything like airplanes, Oritz would need to occupy 2 roster spots.

This week’s thrifty pick-ups both come in the form of shortstops. First Brandon Crawford of the defending World Series Champion San Francisco Giants. He had 3 multi-hit games last week and is batting around .320. The power stroke (yeaaaaa) is starting to come for this 25 year old as he has already tied his homerun total from last season with 4.  The second pickup of the week is the power lacking Jean Segura for the Milwaukee Brewers.  Segura is just 23 years old but has shown he can hit for average in the big leagues.  As of last Saturday he was hitting .386 and has stolen a base in almost every game this week. Considering I have gone 0-3 in stolen bases and just 1-2 in average he might just find a spot on my roster.  Crawford in available in more than 50% of yahoo leagues and Segura is available in over 30%.

Week 4 will surely be a tumultuous week as I’m playing TheBeastModeBar10der, a man who (probably) has multiple league championships in baseball and football. Currently sitting in fourth place, Gee as we will call him is just a game and half behind me who is sitting in second. I’d still be perched atop the mountain in first place if Slim Charles didn’t get shutout by the Commish. Gee has a powerful lineup including Mark Trumbo, Matt Kemp and just acquired Starling Marte who is starting to turn it on for the Pirates of Pittsburgh. He may have a silly name but Marte can certainly rake.

Check in next week where we will hopefully summarize another chapter of VICTORY. If not we’ll summarize my first inevitable defeat and discuss (make excuses) as to how and why I should have won.

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Before the week even started I made some roster moves. I moved Chase Headley and David Ortiz to the disabled list, and picked up Kevin Youkilis and Bobby Parnell. Parnell is the Mets closer for now so I’ll ride him until Frank Francisco returns. Ideally I’ll pawn Parnell off on someone a few weeks before Francisco returns.  Though he now looks like a shaved Captain Caveman, Youk rewarded me with a huge week, hitting over .400 with four runs scored and four runs batted in. His numbers last season were down from a cantankerous relationship with Manager (drunkard) (EDITORS NOTE – Alleged?) Bobby Valentine, before being shipped to the White Sox.  From all reports Youk is transitioning seamlessly into the Yankees clubhouse and has the potential to have a great year. Just a few seasons ago he finished third and then sixth for the American League MVP. I think this is going to be a monster pick-up, not like Cookie Monster big, like Godzilla crushing Tokyo big.

Pictured: Kevin Youkilis’ Yankee Tenure So Far

Also, I cut now useless setup man Jonathon Broxton. Set up men are about as useful in fantasy baseball as Sports-lo’s penis is with a woman.  (EDITORS NOTE – Untrue.  Set Up men occasionally pitch and don’t run away screaming from women) I added the Padres’ Edinson Volquez, which for a spot start wasn’t the most strategic of moves.  Volquez was facing the Mets on opening day, and the Mets always win opening day. I however forgot this matchup anomaly while I was making roster moves on my cell phone, on Easter, during intermission of the show I was attending.  Volquez indeed get smacked around are blew up my ERA.

As you can see I was victorious in every offensive category except for stolen bases, which I was grossly outscored 9-1. The only SB I had this week was from Jason Heyward.  It takes a few weeks for base stealers to get their timing down so I expect more consistency from Angel Pagan and Alex Gordon in weeks to come. But hell, if I win the other four offensive categories each week, screw stolen bases, nobody gives a shit about them in the American League anyway.

On the pitchers side we tied for wins, and I was defeated in both ERA and WHIP. ERA at 4.47 is a ridiculously high number, created by Volquez getting shelled for four innings and Kuroda giving up runs while only pitching into the second inning and leaving due to injury. Kuroda the fool put his pitching hand in front of a come-backer. I’ll never understand why pitchers do that. I know it’s instinct but at this level you could have trained yourself not to put your delicate pitching hand in front of an object moving like 95 mph. Your hand and arm is literally your money maker!  You don’t see porn stars working naked with wood chippers, you don’t hear about fighter pilots staring into the sun until they burn out their retinas.

Slim Charles had a great weekly ERA with 2.70 getting solid performances from Gio Gonzalez, Jason Vargas, and Matt Moore. His closers, Joel Hanranhan scraped together two measly saves and John Axford looks like he is going to be replaced as Brewers closer. Looks like Slim Charles is going to have to make some moves for bullpen help or its going to get late early in Baltimore.

My next opponent is #42Forever, let us say his name is… Jackie.  Jackie isn’t black or from Brooklyn (EDITORS NOTE – Neither are the METS, but that didn’t stop them from giving Jackie Robinson a rotunda), so I don’t quite understand the team name. Maybe he worked on the film currently in theaters of the same title and I am unaware.   But I’m a Mets fan with a Phillies pitcher who isn’t even on my team in my team name, so what do I know.

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Round 12: (114) Hiroki Kuroda

(Serio Romero, Ian Kennedy, Doug Fister)

Now that my lineup is essentially competed, (minus a catcher) I turned my eye towards pitching. While the Yankees may not have the same pop in their lineup as they have in previous season, they are still the Yankees. You think they’re going to have a down year, Toronto, Baltimore, and Tampa all look good. Doesn’t matter they are the stupid fucking Yankees and they will inevitably succeed. Kuroda’s age 38, was initially a question in my mind. How durable will he be, will he get hurt, how many starts will he have?  Although had 16 wins last season posting a 3.32 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP it was still a risky pick.  But when comparing the other two available starting pitchers I settled on Kuroda. Fister had less wins, less K’s and a higher WHIP. Kennedy had an amazing 2011 but came down to earth a bit last season; I think that trend will continue.

Round 13: (127) Chris Perez

(Also available Jason Grilli, Joel Hanrahan, Marco Scutaro)

While no one expects the Cleveland Indians to win the AL Central Chris Perez is a safe pick for a closer. He had 59 strikeouts in 58 innings, and totaled over 35 saves each of the last two seasons. He is clearly the Indians closer with no competition in sight to challenge him for the job.

Round 14: (134) Ryan Vogelson

(Also available Dan Haren, Jeremy Hellickson, Andre Either)

After being out of the majors for 5 seasons Vogie (Ed. Note: Greg is on nickname basis with Vogelson – ALL CITY!) burst onto the scene in 2011 with an incredible year. Last season he had a more moderate stat line of a 14 wins, and a 3.71 ERA to go with 158 K’s. He has an amazing upside for a 14^th round pick. We know he can dominate, and he is on the defending World Series Champion Giants. Also we know he can be so atrocious that he can’t even stay in the bigs with the Pirates.

Round 15: (147) AJ Pierzynski

(Also Available Michael Young, Anthony Rizzo, Jesus Montero)

I definitely reached too early for a catcher. If you don’t get Buster Posey or Joe Mauer you can pretty much wait till the last two rounds to select a catcher. He might struggle adjusting to his new location in Texas after a billion years on the south side of Chicago. But on a positive note, AJ had the most runs 68, the most RBI’s 77, and the second most homeruns for a catcher with 27. I don’t deem it a total waste of a pick, but I could have done better.

Round 16: (154) Rafeal Betancourt

(Also available Addison Reed, Shane Victorino, Kyle Lohse)

Back to the bullpen. I don’t know if I have stressed this enough, YOU NEED TO HAVE CLOSERS, THAT WON’T BE REPLACED MIDSEASON. Rafeal Betancourt is a solid closer on a shaky team in the Colorado Rockies. What is more important is he has been in Colorado several seasons, was their setup guy and has earned the spot as closer. He probably isn’t going anywhere.

Round 17: (167) Chris Capuano

(Also available Brett Gardner, Alex Cobb, Brett Anderson)

This former Met has flourished in the city on Angels. Capuano lowered his ERA last season to 3.72 last season after it was 4.55 in Flushing. As I said before, the Dodgers look like a strong team this year that will battle Arizona for the National League West title. Capuano is a great pick for a fourth starter. Plus his wife is pretty damn sexy.

Round 18: (174) Jonathon Broxton

(Also available Phil Hughes, Grant Balfour, Alfonso Soriano)

I took a shot here with Broxton. He was slated to be the Red’s closer but since Aroldis Chapman was moved back to the bullpen Broxton will become the eighth inning pitcher. Broxton as the set up man he has very little fantasy value. Excuse me as I go flog myself as punishment for this poor draft choice.

Round 19: (187) David Ortiz

(Also available Jason Werth, Adam Dunn, Tommy Hanson)

I was really targeting Ike Davis but my dickhead roommate stole him 5 picks earlier. I needed designated hitter until Chase was healthy. Ortiz has shown the last two seasons that he hasn’t lost it. He seems rejuvenated as there are no playoff expectations for the Red Sox again this season. With the limelight on the rest of the AL East expect Papi to have another quality season in Beantown.

Round 20: (194) Ryan Dempster

(Also available Barry Zito, Edwin Jackson, Chris Davis)

When you get this deep into a draft what you’re really searching for is upside. We know how good Ryan Dempster can be. He was killing it in Chicago last year until her was traded to Texas. Now in Boston Dempster has the potential to be a huge sleeper late in the draft. Or he could suck and I leave him on my roster for too long, cause I’m stubborn and know how good he COULD be.

Round 21: (207) Angel Pagan

(Also available Matt Carpenter, Mark Teixiera, Rickie Weeks)     

I think Pagan was a steal here for a fourth outfielder. He starts for a good team, stole 29 bases and had 95 runs. He’s a good substitution late in the week if you need to boost those categories.

Round 22: (214) Dexter Fowler

(Also available Derek Jeter, Torii Hunter, Matt Garza)

While I probably should have gone starting pitcher here, I chose Fowler instead. Fowler is still young at 27 though he has been in the league four full seasons. For the first time last season his average was over .266 in fact it was .300. For a final round pick you could do worse than a .300 hitter. He might not stay on my roster forever, but at least I can say I drafted. I’m sure after I drop him in May he’ll hit .450 down the stretch and carry the Rockies.

Opening day is Sunday March 31^st and is generally regarded as better than Christmas. Ok maybe not better than Christmas. But it’s a day where even us Met fans can celebrate because we’re briefly in first place. God Bless the national pastime and play (fantasy) ball.

Listen to me babble all the time on twitter @GregVitucci
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This season I will bring you along for the ride that will be my fantasy baseball season. You will have total access to my inevitable joy or more likely heartbreak that accompanies any fantasy team. Tears probably won’t be shed, but hilarity will certainly ensue. I’ll introduce you to all my competition (anonymously,) ridicule them for their ignorance, mock them for being “that guy” and complain when they beat me.

This is a 10 man league with a traditional snake style draft for 22 rounds. I had the seventh overall pick, which means I had the seventh pick in odd numbered rounds the fourth pick in even numbered rounds.

So here’s a look at my draft results and at the end of the season we’ll compare it to my roster:

Round 1: (7) Albert Pujols

(Also Available Fielder, Justin Verlander, Matt Kemp, Stephen Strasburg)

I know he is an aging superstar who has been injury prone the last few seasons but I had to take him. He is in a STACKED lineup. A lineup so stacked in makes Kate Upton look flat chested.   With the addition of Josh Hamilton to the Angels lineup they look to be an offensive juggernaut. Those two sluggers are complimented by reining Rookie of the Year marvel Mike Trout, and the Angles’ other home grown talent Mark Trumbo. Fat Albert will probably start about 50 games as the designated hitter to give his old bones some rest, and as a result will have a monster year. Like remember how cool the monsters in Cloverfield commercials looked? Except this monster will deliver.

Round 2: (14) Clayton Kershaw

(Also Available David Price, Giancarlo Stanton, King Felix)

The top two pitchers on most boards were Justin Verlander and Stephen Strasburg. Verlander went 9^th and Strasburg 11^th. Clayton Kershaw is a stud ace who posted 14 wins last season. This year with a full season for its improved offense to be a cohesive unit the Dodgers should give Kershaw better run support and he could easily win 18 games. If he can duplicate his 2.53 ERA and 229 K’s it’s a fantasy goldmine. My only second thought was to draft Felix Hernandez but with a suspect Seattle offense Kershaw got the call. But King Felix is the best nickname in baseball right now.

Round 3: (27) Adrian Beltre

(Also available Jose Reyes, Jared Weaver, Cole Hamels)

.321/36/102 is a pretty solid stat line for a third round pick. The two most elite third basemen, Wright and Longoria had already come off the board, so Beltre was an obvious pick. Third is a deceptively thin position fantasy wise this season. With A-Rod and Hanley Ramirez both starting the season on the disabled list pickins’ were slim. Texas lost the face of their franchise in Michael Young, and their best player in Josh Hamilton, can Beltre carry a new lineup in a division with the powerhouse Angels? Shit I hope so.

Round 4: (34) Ian Kinsler

(Also available Matt Holiday, Aaron Hill, Craig Kimbrel)

I know his .255 batting average wasn’t anything to write home about last season but that’s because he got 655. Only one other second baseman had over 100 runs last season, in Robinson Cano and Kinsler had 18 more stolen bases. I definitely went too early with Kinsler with the better second basemen Aaron Hill still available. But the market drops off pretty quickly after Cano and Pedroia with Hill, Jason Kipnis, Kinsler and Ben Zobrist being the second tier players. I got lured in by Yahoo fantasy rankings and panicked. I will probably regret this draft pick, and as punishment I will now force myself to converse with Sports-Lo. (ED. NOTE – I hope you watched SMASH)

Round 5: (47) Max Sherzer

(Also Available Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, Joe Mauer)

I knew I needed to get another starting pitcher here and this being my long gap between picks I began pray to the baseball gods. I knew there were few precious names left to be selected. CC Sabathia and Zach Greinke went with picks 42 and 44 so I was running out of names quickly. Sherzer had the second most strikeouts for a starting pitcher last season with 231 trailing only teammate Justin Verlander’s 239. Sherzer will match up against opponent’s second and third pitcher fairly often and with Detroit’s potent lineup another 16 win season should easily be had. But then again with my luck Max Sherzer will simultaneously require Tommy-John surgery and get kidnapped by Martians in early May.

Round 6: (54) Jason Heyward

(Also available Alex Rios, Yeonis Cespedes, Lance Lynn)

Heyward broke into the major for the 2010 season and was heralded as the next coming of Willie freakin’ Mays. Even going as far as to be nicknamed, “The J-Hey Kid” which is an insult to Mays. When Heyward has 600 career dingers then he can compare himself to the Giants legend.  Heyward initially didn’t disappoint putting up .277/18/72 in his rookie campaign. He finished second to Buster Posey for rookie of the year. 2011 was not so kind to Heyward who battled injuries and extensive scouting reports. He finished the season at .227/14/42. Last season Heyward started to show more of his 5 tool hype. Stealing 21 bases and hitting 27 round trip-ers Heyward brought his average back up to .267. With a rebuilt lineup featuring the two Upton brothers, joining him in the outfield, Heyward won’t be the only big bat for pitchers to concentrate on. Look for him to have a real breakout season bringing him to the next level of stardom.

Round 7: (67) Mariano Rivera

(Also available Joe Nathan, Jason Motte, Mark Trumbo)

Closer is always a very interesting position in the world of fantasy sports. They alone can earn you victories in the saves and a WHIP categories. There are very few guaranteed closers coming out of spring training each year. Atlanta’s definite close Craig Kimbrel went in the fourth round, which I thought was a bit of a stretch, but Kimbrel is by far the safest choice on the market. Aroldis Chapman of the Red’s went in the sixth round which is much closer to his average draft position. Not to get totally left behind I selected a the legend. Mariano Rivera is one of the greatest athletes anyone will ever see. This is going to be his final season, and a competitor like Mo will only go out on top. While he might not amass 40 saves this season, he’s a safe pick to anchor a fantasy bullpen. And as a born and raised New Yorker I couldn’t in good conscious let poor Mo spend his final season on one on my dumb suburban friend’s teams.

Round 8: (74) Allen Craig

(Also available Ryan Howard, AJ Burnett, Pablo Sandoval)

Behind his generic white guy name Allen Craig is a solid ball player. Having missed most of the first two months with knee and hamstring issues last season Craig only playing in 119 games. In limited at bats Craig hit .307 with 22 homers and 92 runs batted in. With a healthy full season Craig’s numbers should jump to around 30 and 115, pretty good for a sixth round outfielder.

Round 9: (87) Martin Prado

(Also available David Freese, Ben Zobrist, Asdrubal Cabrera)

Martin Prado in my opinion has always been a fantasy diamond in the rough, because he is eligible to play so many positions. He’s the Kama Sutra of fantasy baseball.  In the past I have had Prado playing second base or outfield, but this year the perennial .300 hitter is eligible for to play shortstop. He started 11 games there last year for the Atlanta after only have only played the position twice in the majors in 2008, thus creating this position loophole.  Now with Arizona, Prado is slated to be the starting third baseman. So in a euphoric world, I’ll get third baseman power and production at the shortstop slot.

Round 10: (94) Chase Headley

(Also available Desmond Jennings, Jake Peavy, Carlos Beltran)

While Chase will start the season on the DL he had an amazing season on a pretty crappy San Diego Padres team last season. He won a gold glove, a silver slugger and led the National League in RBI’s last season.  His career is on the way up and a few weeks on the shelf with a finger injury was by no means stopping me from drafting him as my designated hitter. But again his 4-6 week finger injury will probably turn into a chronic problem resulting in an amputation up to the elbow, all because I drafted him. Maybe after the amputation Headley will start pitching and become the next Jim Abbott.

Round 11: (107) Alex Gordon

(Also available Nick Swisher, Carlos Gomez, Curtis Granderson)

At this point in the draft outfielders were getting pretty slim. The next outfielders to be taken will be Carlos Gomez and Curtis Granderson in the thirteenth round. I really don’t understand drafting   Gomez with Swisher still being on the board. Grandy could be a major sleeper pick if he comes back from the DL in June, raises his terrible .232 average from last year, and still puts up big power numbers. He doesn’t need to hit 43 home runs if he hits .275 and bangs 30 dingers. I wasn’t willing to take the risk on Curtis, and Swisher is on a new team and is getting up in years, so I took Gordon. Kansas City has a solid lineup with Eric Hosmer, and Billy Butler to drive in Gordon who primarily hits lead-off. On the negative side it’s the Kansas City Royals… enough said.

We’re halfway done! Come back tomorrow as I scratch and claw to fill out my roster, bullpen and bench. This is just battle one of a war that will take place over the course of months.
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