I thought they would be fine because of their surplus of pitching depth. They do have that so I wasn’t totally wrong, but my theory really counted on Trevor Rosenthal pitching well. Much like Boggs, he has struggled this season. If he can’t handle the eighth inning, then he obviously isn’t ready to take on the role as closer. Many people are still clamoring for him to get the closer job because they like his “stuff.” Rosenthal has a fastball that frequently hits 100 mph. That is fun to watch no doubt, but throwing hard doesn’t automatically mean you’ll be a good closer.

Now, I don’t think now is the time for Boggs to lose his job as closer. Like I said, it’s still very early in the season and when you consider the remarkable year Boggs had last season, I think he deserves a couple of more opportunities.  If his troubles continue then the Cardinals should make a change.  I don’t think the change should be handled like the Cubs handled their situation.  Carlos Marmol lost the job completely in Chicago.  I think the Cardinals should go to a “closer by committee” and use that as a competition of sorts to find the next closer.

The potential candidates would most likely include Rosenthal, Joe Kelly, and Edward Mujica. I think that Kelly would be the favorite in a competition like that.  He has an ERA of 6.35, but that nowhere near tells the story. Kelly hasn’t had much luck, so in reality he hasn’t done too bad as his 1.59 WHIP proves (EDITORS NOTE – he also has a .333 BABIP – very unlucky)

Rosenthal has struggled early in the year. He has an ERA of 4.50 in 8 innings pitched, but he has the characteristics of a good closer. The role of setup man is as close as you can get to being a closer, but it’s still not the same.  I really do think Rosenthal would have the advantage, but keep in mind that he has never closed at any level of baseball.  Ever.

In 5 innings pitched this year Mujica has an ERA of 1.80. This and his enormous success last season after being traded to St. Louis should earn him strong consideration as closer. Mujica closed a couple of times when he was in Miami and had little to no success, but his fortune has obviously changed since being traded.

Another option that is being tossed around is Lance Lynn. Lynn is currently in the rotation after a great 2011 campaign, but he’s been a reliever before and a good one at that. In 2011, he was the Cardinals’ 8^th inning guy and was absolutely dominant. This move would be easy to do because they could easily make Joe Kelly a starter which he did in 2011. It’s been awhile since Lynn has worked out of the bullpen so that could change the mindset of the Cardinals.

Right now, this is still Boggs’ job to lose, but if this trend repeats he won’t be coming in during the 9^th inning for much longer. The outlook doesn’t look good for Jason Motte. He may have to undergo surgery that would end his year so the team can’t just push this issue a side. I still strongly believe they’ll be okay. Someone will emerge and take control of the last inning.
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They’re led by a pair of 23-year-olds who have already found their way to the big leagues in Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro. Other than those two, they also have Brett Jackson, an outfielder who is just 24.

Castro’s future seems to be exciting. He is a potential five-tool player. He has speed, a strong arm, and he can hit for power. These are all traits that would have a college coach salivating and probably trying to recruit him illegally. He’s hit at least .300 in two of his three years in the majors since debuting in 2010. Last year was his “down” year, but he still managed to hit .283. A major problem for Castro has been on the mental side. He should be a great-fielding short stop, but he isn’t. This is mainly because Castro often gets “bored” when playing the field. Like most young players, he isn’t perfect.

(EDITORS NOTE – He’s still pretty darn good)

Rizzo is young and he will be really good. You can mark that down. After being traded to the Cubs from the Padres, he absolutely tore up minor-league pitching and earned a call up to Chicago. In just 87 games last year, Rizzo had 15 home runs and hit .285.

The Cubs added Edwin Jackson over the offseason to add to their pitching depth, which lacks in talented prospects compared to the position players.

The most exciting aspect about the Cubbies is their minor league system. They have a plethora of exciting prospects, developing until it’s their time to head to Wrigley. The most notable of these prospects are Jorge Soler and Javier Baiez. Both of these players should have a promising career and both of these players are under the age of 22. Albert Almora, another exciting young prospect, and Soler aren’t expected to be in Chicago for a couple of years. They’re both still very young (Almora is 18) and they still have some developing to do.

So Cubs fans, as you watch Carlos Marmol blow save after save and lose his job as closer, (EDITORS NOTE – This was written before Marmol lost his closer job and eventually won in his next appearance.) you should know that behind a rough 2013 record of 2-5 is an exciting future. It won’t be this year and it may not be next year, but winning-baseball is coming to Wrigley Field, sooner rather than later.
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Just three innings into the game, Ludwick was injured on a head-first slide into third base.

An MRI on Tuesday revealed that the injury was no minor one and Ludwick will miss about three months. Chris Heisey came in to replace Ludwick and will likely be the replacement for now despite the callings for Billy Hamilton. Hamilton is at AAA for the Reds and is seen as the fastest player in all of baseball.  After beginning his career as a short stop, this is his first year after being transitioned to an outfielder.

The 34-year-old Ludwick hit .275 with 26 home runs in 125 games with the Reds last season. He’s been a bit of a journey-man for most of his career. It started in 2002 with the Texas Rangers. After short stints with the Indians and Tigers he moved on to the St. Louis Cardinals where he spent most of his career. His breakout season was in 2008 when he hit .299 for the Cardinals with a WAR of 5.3. After briefly being with the Pirates, Ludwick landed with the Reds in 2011.

Todd Frazier could also fill-in for Ludwick as he’s a jack of all trades-type guy. Xavier Paul could also see time there.

The Reds added Shin-Soo Choo in the offseason at center field and they have All-Star, slugger Jay Bruce in right field. This leaves the Reds’ only fault for the most part in left as Ludwick and the team will endure his lengthy absence. As with any team, health is a big factor in your performance.

Cincinnati was seen as the favorite to win the division coming in to 2013 and although that doesn’t change too much, the Ludwick injury could provide an advantage for a team like the Cardinals, who are plagued with injuries themselves, or the Brewers could step up and take control of the division lead. It will be interesting to see how the Reds cope with the loss of Ludwick. They should be just fine.  For now.
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Lohse’s former team offered him a one-year $13.3 million contract in order to receive draft pick compensation. The Cardinal’s really had no interest in resigning him and Lohse immediately turned down the offer. Because he signed with the Brewers, the Cardinals will receive the 28^th pick in the upcoming draft and Milwaukee will lose their 17^th pick.

Suitors such as the Rangers and Dodgers seemed unwilling to pay Lohse like an ace. Although last season’s stats would suggest otherwise, he’s mainly put up the numbers of a second or third starter in his career. Other than ace Yovani Gallardo, the Brewers don’t have too much firepower from their starting rotation.

In my NL Central predictions article, I said that the Brewers are a much better team than given credit for. Obviously this signing can do nothing but help them as long as Lohse pitches like he did in 2011 and 2012, NOT like he did in 2010.

Let’s have a look at Lohse’s rising performance since 2010.

2010: 4-8, 6.55 ERA, 0.7 WAR (Mind you, he was absolutely plagued with injuries in 2010.)

2011: 14-8, 3.39 ERA, 2.5 WAR

2012: 16-3, 2.86 ERA, 3.6 WAR

(ED. NOTE – guess which season I had Lohse on my Fantasy Team…)

That is a noticeable incline in his performance. Being in St. Louis, I can tell you this; even in his down years, Lohse was always good to eat up some innings. In 2011, Lohse was crucial in the Cardinals’ unpredictable run that ended in a World Series title. In 2012, the Cardinals probably don’t make the playoffs without Lohse. After the rotation suffered some injuries, Lohse stepped up as the number one starter and came within one inning of throwing a no-hitter on Opening Night against the Marlins. He then went on to be one of the National League’s best pitchers in 2012.

Did the Brewers pay a little too much for Lohse? Maybe. Did they lose a draft pick in the process? Yes. But did they make their team better? They most certainly did. The Brewers are a much better team with him on board. If he can stay healthy, I see no reason why he can’t be a top of the line pitcher in 2012. He could even help the Brewers slide into a playoff spot.
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Normally the 8^th inning man, right-hander Mitchell Boggs will assume the role as closer until Motte is ready to return.

If you take it for face value, this is a crushing blow to the Cardinals. It certainly isn’t a good thing that Motte will be out for a while. After all he did have 42 saves in 2012 with an ERA of 2.75, but what you have to remember is that that the Cardinals have enough talented, young pitchers to make another team. Seriously, their AAA bullpen and rotation may be better than a couple major league teams.

So, the moral of the story is that this is a tough thing to happen, but the Cardinals are 100% capable of dealing with it. The guy taking over for Motte, Mitchell Boggs, has just as good as numbers as Motte does. Boggs finished the 2012 campaign with an ERA of 2.21. A closer is important especially in tight, division games. Motte has had much more success against the NL Central than Boggs has. Both of their stats against the Central are good, but the decisive edge goes to Jason Motte.

Here is how other teams in the division have fared against Motte since he came into the league in 2008:

Reds: .194 batting average when facing Motte.

Brewers: .200

Cubs: .190 avg.

Pirates: .191 avg.

And now Mitchell Boggs versus the Central:

Reds: .209 avg.

Brewers: .314 avg. (ED. NOTE: WOWZA!)

Cubs: .250 avg.

Pirates: .263 avg.

As you can see, division opponents have a much harder time facing Motte. Both Motte and Boggs’ have their biggest troubles facing the Brewers.

Jason Motte had a great season last year, but he had his problems too.  His only pitch for the most part was a fastball. It didn’t hurt him too bad last year because it was one good fastball. But that fastball that hit triple digits also became predictable which led to Motte’s next problem; home runs. For as many saves as he got, he also gave up nine homeruns and had a HR/9 ratio of 1.13, which is especially high for a closer.

Boggs’ primary fault is an obvious one. In 2012 he had zero saves. Zero. Although he did an excellent job as the set-up man, the ninth inning is an entirely different story. Tony LaRussa used to say it all the time; the 27^th out is the hardest to get. Boggs should be able to handle the job and the Cardinals are extremely confident that he can as well. But if for some reason he can’t or he gets hurt, the Cardinals still won’t be panicking. Next in line would be hard-throwing prospect Trevor Rosenthal who has had a great spring.

After him would be top pitching prospect Shelby Miller, but if it got to him, Motte would probably be ready to return. Losing your shutdown close is never easy, but the Cardinals can handle it. And they will handle it. Situations like these show you why the phrase, “You can never have enough pitching”, is so spot on. And boy do the Cardinals have enough pitching.

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2013 NL Central Preview and Predictions

            The NL Central has been on the rise over the last couple of years. Most of that can be credited to the Pirates who have climbed from doormat of the division to a possible playoff contender. With a very bad Houston Astros team out of the division, the division will be one of the most competitive in baseball. Certainly, the overwhelming majority is predicting the Reds or the Cardinals to win the division, but the Brewers and Pirates should put up a fight. The Cubs will probably not contend for a playoff spot but they could as soon as next year. This is what I think will happen in the Central  in order.

Cincinnati Reds:

The Reds are coming off a division title in 2012, winning 97 games. Their playoff stay was short, but they should be in for another good season in 2013. There’s really not too many gaps in their roster at all. Moving Aroldis Chapman, who was a dominant closer last year, to the starting rotation is a risky move (ED.NOTE – just ask Joba Chamberlain). Chapman has said himself that he prefers closing, but with that much talent he shouldn’t have too much trouble. Their roster is nearly the exact same as 2012 with the exception of Shin-Soo Choo who should help their offense even more.

PREDICTION: I think they finish first, with a record of 92-70

St. Louis Cardinals:

The Cardinals are always in the running for a division title and 2013 will be no different. The loss of Chris Carpenter for the season will hurt the rotation, but behind the young arms of Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller they should be fine. Their lineup is arguably the best in baseball, but a lack of talented depth at shortstop could come back and bite them. I think they’ll finish second, but make it to the postseason as a Wild Card.

PREDICTION: They come in second, but make the postseason as a Wild Card.  Final record, 89-73

Pittsburgh Pirates:

The Pirates have been on the rise for the last couple of years and they should continue rising in 2013. Their rotation is very good, better than they get credit for. It should have a nice season behind James McDonald, A.J. Burnett, and Wandy Rodriguez. Andrew McCutchen will look to continue his climb to one of the best players in baseball.

PREDICTION: The Pirates get their first winning season but finish third going 82-80

Milwaukee Brewers:

The Brewers are a team often overlooked. I think they could surprise people and make a run at a playoff spot. They certainly have their fair-share of problems, but with Corey Hart and Ryan Braun in the lineup you can’t count them out.

PREDICTION:  I have them finishing fourth at an even 81-81

Chicago Cubs:

Those fans at Wrigley deserve to see some playoff baseball, but I don’t think that will happen this year. The Cubs are definitely moving in the right direction. They have some talent with Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo. The Cubs will undoubtedly look to get out from under the contract of Alfonso Soriano via trade. Prospects such as Jorge Soler and Javier Baez provide hope for the future.

PREDICTION:The Cubs bring up the rear at 70-92

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